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If you are capable, please help us to create good quality subtitles: https://c3subtitles.de/talk/408 Thanks! 1 00:00:18,550 --> 00:00:19,869 Yes, thank you very much. 2 00:00:19,870 --> 00:00:21,309 Well, this is the beginning of the talk 3 00:00:21,310 --> 00:00:23,169 because, as you all know, Comic Sans 4 00:00:23,170 --> 00:00:24,640 makes hard things funny. 5 00:00:27,040 --> 00:00:29,019 And since nuclear weapons is a pretty 6 00:00:29,020 --> 00:00:30,819 tough topic, I thought we should start 7 00:00:30,820 --> 00:00:32,379 off on a lighter note, I guess. 8 00:00:33,580 --> 00:00:35,589 But the first thing that I want you all 9 00:00:35,590 --> 00:00:37,839 to notice is if we move from jokes about 10 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:39,999 nuclear weapons to real things, 11 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,579 it doesn't get any less bizarre. 12 00:00:42,580 --> 00:00:44,380 Now, if you consider this photo, 13 00:00:45,910 --> 00:00:47,199 this is. 14 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:48,669 Yes, yes. 15 00:00:52,450 --> 00:00:54,519 This is a general of the United States 16 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:56,799 military who at the conclusion 17 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:58,929 of the first testing series of 18 00:00:58,930 --> 00:01:00,789 nuclear weapons after the attacks on 19 00:01:00,790 --> 00:01:03,459 Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1946 20 00:01:03,460 --> 00:01:06,009 celebrates the great outcome 21 00:01:06,010 --> 00:01:08,289 of the operation by slicing into this 22 00:01:08,290 --> 00:01:10,389 wonderful mushroom cloud cake together 23 00:01:10,390 --> 00:01:12,579 with his wife and some other military 24 00:01:12,580 --> 00:01:13,580 guy. 25 00:01:13,960 --> 00:01:14,919 So there you have it. 26 00:01:14,920 --> 00:01:16,509 It doesn't get any less bizarre. 27 00:01:16,510 --> 00:01:18,819 Just one serious disclaimer 28 00:01:18,820 --> 00:01:20,319 before we start now, I'm going to be 29 00:01:20,320 --> 00:01:22,569 talking a lot about different countries 30 00:01:22,570 --> 00:01:24,489 because nuclear weapons is a problem that 31 00:01:24,490 --> 00:01:25,840 really applies worldwide. 32 00:01:27,190 --> 00:01:29,079 And what I've learned, I went to the 33 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:31,089 University of Hamburg, I learned peace 34 00:01:31,090 --> 00:01:33,159 studies. I'm a physicist is of course, 35 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,349 shaped by where I live and 36 00:01:35,350 --> 00:01:36,429 what I've heard. 37 00:01:36,430 --> 00:01:38,259 And also I use sources accessible to me, 38 00:01:38,260 --> 00:01:39,399 especially language wise. 39 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,919 That means mostly in English and German, 40 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:44,439 I can really read Russian sources. 41 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:46,329 I can't use Chinese sources or anything. 42 00:01:46,330 --> 00:01:48,399 So what I want to say is when I talk 43 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:50,349 about the motivations and the history of 44 00:01:50,350 --> 00:01:51,459 different countries, I'm going to be 45 00:01:51,460 --> 00:01:53,679 talking about countries with a very 46 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:55,479 detailed history and very intricate 47 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,269 history like Pakistan, India and Israel. 48 00:01:58,270 --> 00:01:59,919 I will, of course, not be able to 49 00:01:59,920 --> 00:02:01,839 accurately and completely represent the 50 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:03,669 history and the motivations and the 51 00:02:03,670 --> 00:02:05,829 context of all the actions of these 52 00:02:05,830 --> 00:02:07,269 countries in such a short time. 53 00:02:07,270 --> 00:02:09,339 So if you find that my perspective 54 00:02:09,340 --> 00:02:11,379 is biased, that I'm speaking from the 55 00:02:11,380 --> 00:02:13,479 Western point of view 56 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:15,609 or anything, then I'm sorry, because 57 00:02:15,610 --> 00:02:16,719 I don't really want to do that. 58 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:18,879 And I will be happy to, you know, talk 59 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:20,169 about that afterwards. 60 00:02:20,170 --> 00:02:22,329 OK, so let's get into things 61 00:02:22,330 --> 00:02:24,849 now. I'm going to spider myself 62 00:02:24,850 --> 00:02:26,259 with the topic of the talk. 63 00:02:26,260 --> 00:02:28,509 What did happen to nuclear weapons? 64 00:02:28,510 --> 00:02:30,069 I mean, the Cold War is over, right? 65 00:02:30,070 --> 00:02:31,689 That was when all the nuclear weapons 66 00:02:31,690 --> 00:02:33,879 were like a big problem, but that 67 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:35,499 was the end of the 80s that went away. 68 00:02:35,500 --> 00:02:38,139 Well, no, no, no, no. 69 00:02:38,140 --> 00:02:39,639 The nuclear weapons are still there. 70 00:02:39,640 --> 00:02:40,959 And that is the problem. 71 00:02:40,960 --> 00:02:42,849 That is the problem because it didn't 72 00:02:42,850 --> 00:02:44,979 diminish. You know, they 73 00:02:44,980 --> 00:02:46,659 didn't just magically disappear and they 74 00:02:46,660 --> 00:02:48,819 didn't get any less deadly just because 75 00:02:48,820 --> 00:02:51,069 that part, which we call 76 00:02:51,070 --> 00:02:53,379 the Cold War of the 20th century, 77 00:02:53,380 --> 00:02:54,699 sort of passed. 78 00:02:54,700 --> 00:02:56,110 So the main questions, 79 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:59,679 one particular fact, which is 80 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:01,899 by itself kind of funny, is that in 81 00:03:01,900 --> 00:03:03,339 the world, by international treaties, 82 00:03:03,340 --> 00:03:05,709 five countries are allowed legally 83 00:03:05,710 --> 00:03:07,299 to have nuclear weapons. 84 00:03:07,300 --> 00:03:09,429 Now, that number has gone 85 00:03:09,430 --> 00:03:11,589 up to 13 during the course of the 20th 86 00:03:11,590 --> 00:03:13,809 century, and it has by today 87 00:03:13,810 --> 00:03:14,769 gone down by nine. 88 00:03:14,770 --> 00:03:15,879 OK, so how did that happen? 89 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:16,999 You know why five? 90 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:18,099 Why isn't it five? 91 00:03:18,100 --> 00:03:19,329 What's going on there? That's one thing 92 00:03:19,330 --> 00:03:20,330 we're going to be talking about. 93 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,469 We're going to be talking about a lot of 94 00:03:23,470 --> 00:03:25,539 abbreviations and complicated 95 00:03:25,540 --> 00:03:26,979 topics. 96 00:03:26,980 --> 00:03:28,569 And I hope that by the end of the talk, 97 00:03:28,570 --> 00:03:31,239 at least each one of those abbreviations 98 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,309 you should have seen and know what 99 00:03:33,310 --> 00:03:35,409 it's about and of course, what can 100 00:03:35,410 --> 00:03:37,509 you do? So that means if 101 00:03:37,510 --> 00:03:39,249 you're interested in helping solve the 102 00:03:39,250 --> 00:03:41,259 problem of nuclear weapons or want to 103 00:03:41,260 --> 00:03:43,239 know more about what's going on in all 104 00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:45,219 this context, then I'll be providing you 105 00:03:45,220 --> 00:03:46,929 with a few tips towards the end of the 106 00:03:46,930 --> 00:03:48,169 talk. 107 00:03:48,170 --> 00:03:50,379 OK, now nuclear weapons 108 00:03:50,380 --> 00:03:52,239 are made of some stuff and there are some 109 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,519 special materials that have to be used 110 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,649 in order for a nuclear weapon to work. 111 00:03:56,650 --> 00:03:58,779 One of these is uranium, which 112 00:03:58,780 --> 00:04:00,849 is a heavy metal element that 113 00:04:00,850 --> 00:04:03,009 is naturally found in the earth, in 114 00:04:03,010 --> 00:04:04,419 minerals. 115 00:04:04,420 --> 00:04:07,659 But in order for it to be useful for 116 00:04:07,660 --> 00:04:09,669 constructing nuclear weapons, you need to 117 00:04:09,670 --> 00:04:12,429 make a process called enrichment 118 00:04:12,430 --> 00:04:13,629 work with it. 119 00:04:13,630 --> 00:04:16,299 And that means that the 120 00:04:16,300 --> 00:04:18,429 the ratio of the isotopes so let's 121 00:04:18,430 --> 00:04:20,499 say the different parts of different 122 00:04:20,500 --> 00:04:22,599 types of uranium that you find when you 123 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:24,489 take it out of the earth, you have to 124 00:04:24,490 --> 00:04:25,569 change that and you have to change it 125 00:04:25,570 --> 00:04:27,399 dramatically like you see in the natural 126 00:04:28,840 --> 00:04:31,059 uranium. I just see that 127 00:04:31,060 --> 00:04:33,189 I think I got the numbers wrong 128 00:04:33,190 --> 00:04:34,190 on the left one. 129 00:04:35,290 --> 00:04:36,459 Oh, OK. 130 00:04:36,460 --> 00:04:37,989 There enrichment means that of one 131 00:04:37,990 --> 00:04:40,029 particular isotope. 132 00:04:40,030 --> 00:04:41,559 You need to make the ratio much bigger. 133 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:43,479 Yeah. On the left. That should say that 134 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:44,480 should be reversed. 135 00:04:47,230 --> 00:04:48,789 No, no, no, it should. 136 00:04:48,790 --> 00:04:50,619 OK, I'll just move to the next slide, I 137 00:04:50,620 --> 00:04:51,620 guess 138 00:04:53,170 --> 00:04:54,579 what I want to say is this enrichment 139 00:04:54,580 --> 00:04:56,499 process is extremely complicated and 140 00:04:56,500 --> 00:04:57,549 extremely expensive. 141 00:04:57,550 --> 00:04:59,109 So if you're thinking of getting nuclear 142 00:04:59,110 --> 00:05:00,669 weapons, well, this is one way of doing 143 00:05:00,670 --> 00:05:02,079 it. But it's going to be a lot of work 144 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:04,029 and it's going to cost a lot. 145 00:05:04,030 --> 00:05:05,349 The alternative that you have is 146 00:05:05,350 --> 00:05:07,479 plutonium, which is another element, but 147 00:05:07,480 --> 00:05:08,829 it's not found naturally in nature 148 00:05:08,830 --> 00:05:11,019 because it decays relatively quickly. 149 00:05:11,020 --> 00:05:12,639 When I say quickly, I mean tens of 150 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:14,649 thousands of years as opposed to the 151 00:05:14,650 --> 00:05:17,139 millions of years for uranium. 152 00:05:17,140 --> 00:05:19,419 Now, this little bulk of plutonium, 153 00:05:19,420 --> 00:05:21,609 which weighs something between 10 and 15 154 00:05:21,610 --> 00:05:24,369 kilograms, is actually a critical mass. 155 00:05:24,370 --> 00:05:27,009 So it could explode in a nuclear 156 00:05:27,010 --> 00:05:28,959 runaway fission reaction if it had a 157 00:05:28,960 --> 00:05:30,759 different shape, which is why they were 158 00:05:30,760 --> 00:05:32,469 able to take a picture of it. 159 00:05:32,470 --> 00:05:34,629 If this was a ball, if it was 160 00:05:34,630 --> 00:05:36,279 a ball, it would be a critical mass and 161 00:05:36,280 --> 00:05:37,569 it would explode, but in the shape of a 162 00:05:37,570 --> 00:05:38,469 ring. 163 00:05:38,470 --> 00:05:39,579 It's not dangerous. 164 00:05:39,580 --> 00:05:41,649 So this small. 165 00:05:41,650 --> 00:05:42,769 Well, it is dangerous. 166 00:05:42,770 --> 00:05:43,770 I'm sorry. 167 00:05:49,890 --> 00:05:51,869 And this you get out of nuclear reactors, 168 00:05:51,870 --> 00:05:53,189 the ones you use for electricity 169 00:05:53,190 --> 00:05:55,259 generation, you just run 170 00:05:55,260 --> 00:05:57,269 your nuclear reactor and you power your 171 00:05:57,270 --> 00:05:58,799 light bulbs and computers and blinking 172 00:05:58,800 --> 00:05:59,699 lights. 173 00:05:59,700 --> 00:06:02,039 And what naturally sort of comes out 174 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:03,479 from this process is plutonium. 175 00:06:03,480 --> 00:06:04,649 Now, you can speed that up. 176 00:06:04,650 --> 00:06:06,719 You can put in some extra uranium to get 177 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:07,799 out some extra plutonium. 178 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:09,930 But basically you just need a normal 179 00:06:11,100 --> 00:06:12,899 nuclear reactor. And that, in comparison 180 00:06:12,900 --> 00:06:14,399 to the uranium enrichment, is something 181 00:06:14,400 --> 00:06:16,079 which is relatively easy to do as we're 182 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:17,189 going to be seen. 183 00:06:17,190 --> 00:06:19,019 OK, so these are the two materials and 184 00:06:19,020 --> 00:06:20,939 then you put them together into a nuclear 185 00:06:20,940 --> 00:06:22,319 weapon. By the way, these pictures, 186 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:23,429 they're all from Wikipedia. 187 00:06:23,430 --> 00:06:25,739 I mean, there used to be jokes about how, 188 00:06:25,740 --> 00:06:27,209 you know, how to build a bomb, but now 189 00:06:27,210 --> 00:06:28,409 they're coming after you. Well, 190 00:06:28,410 --> 00:06:30,599 everything I'm going to show has been out 191 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:32,579 there for years. So I'm not a target. 192 00:06:32,580 --> 00:06:33,580 I'm not a target. 193 00:06:36,180 --> 00:06:38,369 So the most basic design is called 194 00:06:38,370 --> 00:06:39,929 the gun type, which is where you have to 195 00:06:39,930 --> 00:06:41,039 subcritical masses. 196 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:43,889 So that means box of nuclear material 197 00:06:43,890 --> 00:06:45,269 that are too little to explode by 198 00:06:45,270 --> 00:06:47,039 themselves and you put them together. 199 00:06:47,040 --> 00:06:49,019 Normally this is illustrated as 200 00:06:49,020 --> 00:06:50,669 hemispheres which are pushed together. 201 00:06:50,670 --> 00:06:52,109 Hemispheres don't really work. 202 00:06:52,110 --> 00:06:54,359 What you have is a tube or 203 00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:56,429 sort of rings that you shoot 204 00:06:56,430 --> 00:06:57,919 onto a stick. 205 00:06:57,920 --> 00:06:59,369 And this works with uranium. 206 00:06:59,370 --> 00:07:01,619 And this is sort of the the simplest way 207 00:07:01,620 --> 00:07:03,749 in which a nuclear bomb can be assembled. 208 00:07:03,750 --> 00:07:06,329 This doesn't work with plutonium 209 00:07:06,330 --> 00:07:08,669 for complicated nuclear physics 210 00:07:08,670 --> 00:07:09,599 kinds of reasons. 211 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:11,849 The fission reaction starts 212 00:07:11,850 --> 00:07:13,409 too early because of too many prompt 213 00:07:13,410 --> 00:07:14,410 neutrons. 214 00:07:15,140 --> 00:07:17,189 But anyway, this only works with uranium. 215 00:07:17,190 --> 00:07:19,319 Now, the other way of doing it is 216 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:21,659 what's called an implosion type device. 217 00:07:21,660 --> 00:07:23,489 And there you have a hollow sphere. 218 00:07:23,490 --> 00:07:25,349 So that means you have plutonium not not 219 00:07:25,350 --> 00:07:27,449 in a compressed ball, but a 220 00:07:27,450 --> 00:07:28,679 ball with a hole in the middle, if you 221 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:29,680 will. 222 00:07:30,180 --> 00:07:32,099 And there is a very, very intricate and 223 00:07:32,100 --> 00:07:34,229 complicated set of explosives around 224 00:07:34,230 --> 00:07:36,689 it. And at the moment of ignition, 225 00:07:36,690 --> 00:07:38,819 these explosive compress the ball into 226 00:07:38,820 --> 00:07:40,769 a hard sphere, into a smaller sphere. 227 00:07:40,770 --> 00:07:42,720 And that then is a critical mass. 228 00:07:44,010 --> 00:07:46,469 And this initiates the runaway reaction 229 00:07:46,470 --> 00:07:48,479 which makes the bomb explode. 230 00:07:48,480 --> 00:07:50,069 You can make these kinds of setups 231 00:07:50,070 --> 00:07:51,749 smaller and lighter, which is why 232 00:07:51,750 --> 00:07:53,099 practically all the nuclear weapons 233 00:07:53,100 --> 00:07:55,229 states have gone to this implosion type 234 00:07:55,230 --> 00:07:57,179 device as opposed to the gun type device. 235 00:07:58,500 --> 00:08:00,869 You can put Tresham or deuterium 236 00:08:00,870 --> 00:08:02,939 or mixture of both inside and this 237 00:08:02,940 --> 00:08:04,019 cause boosting. 238 00:08:04,020 --> 00:08:05,579 So you have the same nuclear weapon that 239 00:08:05,580 --> 00:08:07,889 would explode as it is 240 00:08:07,890 --> 00:08:09,929 and it would make some big explosion. 241 00:08:09,930 --> 00:08:11,969 But then you can put tritium or deuterium 242 00:08:11,970 --> 00:08:13,739 in it and the explosion will be even 243 00:08:13,740 --> 00:08:15,390 bigger, which is why this. 244 00:08:16,690 --> 00:08:18,789 Actually, pretty harmless isotopes of 245 00:08:18,790 --> 00:08:21,429 hydrogen that are deuterium antiracism 246 00:08:21,430 --> 00:08:22,779 are actually relevant to the 247 00:08:22,780 --> 00:08:24,729 proliferation of nuclear weapons because 248 00:08:24,730 --> 00:08:26,019 it's a material that you can use for 249 00:08:26,020 --> 00:08:28,179 boosting to 250 00:08:28,180 --> 00:08:30,999 show you how far this development can go. 251 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:33,308 You see here the Davy Crockett, 252 00:08:33,309 --> 00:08:35,499 which is a nuclear device, 253 00:08:35,500 --> 00:08:37,899 a nuclear bomb that was developed 254 00:08:37,900 --> 00:08:39,668 by the US military and stationed here in 255 00:08:39,669 --> 00:08:40,689 Germany even. 256 00:08:40,690 --> 00:08:42,788 And this is as bad 257 00:08:42,789 --> 00:08:43,989 an idea as it looks. 258 00:08:47,300 --> 00:08:49,369 The ratio, so meaning how far 259 00:08:49,370 --> 00:08:51,199 this thing can fly is somewhere between 260 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:52,549 two and four kilometers. 261 00:08:58,240 --> 00:09:00,309 And the radius 262 00:09:00,310 --> 00:09:02,109 at which it will give you a lethal a 263 00:09:02,110 --> 00:09:04,119 deadly dose of radiation is about one 264 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:06,339 kilometer. So you have to be a very 265 00:09:06,340 --> 00:09:08,529 good shot and very, very sure of the 266 00:09:08,530 --> 00:09:10,029 wind direction and everything in it. 267 00:09:10,030 --> 00:09:12,159 Well, it wasn't never used in the 268 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:13,629 field, luckily, of course, like many 269 00:09:13,630 --> 00:09:14,630 other weapons. 270 00:09:15,340 --> 00:09:17,139 But they also had this. 271 00:09:18,190 --> 00:09:19,539 Then we come to what's called the 272 00:09:19,540 --> 00:09:21,849 hydrogen bomb or a thermonuclear 273 00:09:21,850 --> 00:09:24,069 device or in technical terms, 274 00:09:24,070 --> 00:09:25,479 the teller alarm designed. 275 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,759 This all means basically the same thing, 276 00:09:27,760 --> 00:09:30,279 which is that you take the normal nuclear 277 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:32,469 weapon as if it weren't bad enough 278 00:09:32,470 --> 00:09:34,599 as it is and you smack 279 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:36,879 on a sort of fusion assembly 280 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:37,869 is what it's called. 281 00:09:37,870 --> 00:09:40,029 And this ordinary nuclear 282 00:09:40,030 --> 00:09:42,129 bomb then ignites the fusion 283 00:09:42,130 --> 00:09:44,379 part of it, which makes for a much, much 284 00:09:44,380 --> 00:09:45,380 bigger explosion. 285 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:48,939 And to illustrate how much bigger 286 00:09:48,940 --> 00:09:51,279 this explosion can get now, I have scaled 287 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:52,929 these icons, which you see there, the 288 00:09:52,930 --> 00:09:55,059 little speck between the gun type and the 289 00:09:55,060 --> 00:09:56,060 15 kiloton. 290 00:09:57,190 --> 00:09:59,529 This scales by area of the eye can 291 00:09:59,530 --> 00:10:01,449 with the explosive yield. 292 00:10:01,450 --> 00:10:03,699 So the size and the destructive 293 00:10:03,700 --> 00:10:05,379 force of the explosion of the other types 294 00:10:05,380 --> 00:10:07,539 that I'm going to add now, which is 295 00:10:07,540 --> 00:10:09,399 the that implosion type, which is sort of 296 00:10:09,400 --> 00:10:10,400 the biggest 297 00:10:11,560 --> 00:10:13,539 the biggest conventional type nuclear 298 00:10:13,540 --> 00:10:15,279 weapon that you can build without any 299 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:17,259 fusion involved. 300 00:10:17,260 --> 00:10:19,329 And then we have the biggest fusion 301 00:10:19,330 --> 00:10:21,519 weapons that have ever been invented. 302 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:23,289 And this, of course, I think many will 303 00:10:23,290 --> 00:10:25,269 recognize is a photograph of the Czar 304 00:10:25,270 --> 00:10:27,429 Bomba explosion, which was a 305 00:10:27,430 --> 00:10:29,619 about 60 megaton explosion 306 00:10:29,620 --> 00:10:31,870 that the Soviet Union did in 1961 307 00:10:33,010 --> 00:10:34,839 after deciding that they wouldn't go for 308 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:37,119 the 100 megaton, which they had actually 309 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,099 designed it for because they didn't 310 00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:40,719 really know what it might do to the 311 00:10:40,720 --> 00:10:42,159 Earth's atmosphere or anything. 312 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:45,789 So that was the biggest explosion that 313 00:10:45,790 --> 00:10:47,979 ever happened. Actually, the soundwave, 314 00:10:47,980 --> 00:10:49,989 you know, the shock, if you're standing 315 00:10:49,990 --> 00:10:52,329 anywhere in the next part of 100 316 00:10:52,330 --> 00:10:53,889 kilometers of this, you will hear a big 317 00:10:53,890 --> 00:10:55,959 noise. This shock sound 318 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,299 wave traveled around the Earth three 319 00:10:58,300 --> 00:11:00,819 times and they measured it in Norway 320 00:11:00,820 --> 00:11:02,769 and in Australia and everywhere after 321 00:11:02,770 --> 00:11:04,869 this one explosion saw that 322 00:11:04,870 --> 00:11:05,769 was a very big one. 323 00:11:05,770 --> 00:11:07,899 But for now, I would like to go 324 00:11:07,900 --> 00:11:11,139 back and focus on these small explosions, 325 00:11:11,140 --> 00:11:13,299 because, sadly enough, these are the 326 00:11:13,300 --> 00:11:15,549 only types of explosions that have well, 327 00:11:15,550 --> 00:11:17,619 now, sad 328 00:11:17,620 --> 00:11:19,359 as it is, they have been used in war. 329 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:21,519 And this was the explosion that was 330 00:11:21,520 --> 00:11:23,739 caused by it, by 331 00:11:23,740 --> 00:11:25,449 which I mean the attacks on the Japanese 332 00:11:25,450 --> 00:11:27,999 cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki 333 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:29,439 in 1945. 334 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:31,539 So these were bombs, one of 335 00:11:31,540 --> 00:11:33,579 the very simple gun type, a uranium 336 00:11:33,580 --> 00:11:35,889 assembly and one of the implosion 337 00:11:35,890 --> 00:11:38,229 type with plutonium that had been tested 338 00:11:38,230 --> 00:11:40,809 before in the Trinity test of 1944, 339 00:11:40,810 --> 00:11:42,819 which was the first nuclear explosion 340 00:11:42,820 --> 00:11:44,919 that ever happened on Earth 341 00:11:44,920 --> 00:11:46,389 with the gun type assembly. 342 00:11:46,390 --> 00:11:48,609 And I've told you, you shoot a ring onto 343 00:11:48,610 --> 00:11:50,469 a stick. This assembly was so simple that 344 00:11:50,470 --> 00:11:51,789 they did not test it before. 345 00:11:51,790 --> 00:11:53,619 The first time this type of explosion 346 00:11:53,620 --> 00:11:55,479 ever happened was when it destroyed a 347 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:56,480 city. 348 00:11:57,640 --> 00:11:59,439 OK, so that was where it was used in war. 349 00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:01,629 And when this happens, the 350 00:12:01,630 --> 00:12:03,069 effects of the bomb are actually 351 00:12:03,070 --> 00:12:05,229 manifold. It's not just one thing 352 00:12:05,230 --> 00:12:06,250 blows it all away. 353 00:12:07,540 --> 00:12:09,189 The explosive blast, that means the air 354 00:12:09,190 --> 00:12:11,769 that is pushed, that is about 355 00:12:11,770 --> 00:12:13,179 a little less than half of all the 356 00:12:13,180 --> 00:12:14,709 energy, the total energy that is 357 00:12:14,710 --> 00:12:15,759 released. 358 00:12:15,760 --> 00:12:17,439 The heat radiation makes for another 359 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:19,569 about half and only five percent, 360 00:12:19,570 --> 00:12:21,789 you may say, goes into radiation. 361 00:12:21,790 --> 00:12:23,949 But of course, given how big 362 00:12:23,950 --> 00:12:26,139 the explosion is, this can still do 363 00:12:26,140 --> 00:12:28,479 substantial damage, especially to living 364 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,789 beings. And with a device 365 00:12:30,790 --> 00:12:32,889 called a neutron bomb, which 366 00:12:32,890 --> 00:12:34,419 is actually just a regular 367 00:12:35,680 --> 00:12:37,839 a regular nuclear bomb with some 368 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,759 materials and some different radioactive 369 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,129 metals added to increase 370 00:12:42,130 --> 00:12:43,929 the output of radioactivity in this 371 00:12:43,930 --> 00:12:46,149 explosion, it can go up to about 372 00:12:46,150 --> 00:12:48,549 20 to 30 percent of the total energy 373 00:12:48,550 --> 00:12:50,649 released in the form of radiation. 374 00:12:50,650 --> 00:12:52,749 Now, the effects, of course, 375 00:12:52,750 --> 00:12:54,819 are well known. This is a before and 376 00:12:54,820 --> 00:12:56,799 after picture of the city of Hiroshima 377 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:58,659 and well, yes, it's a river. 378 00:12:58,660 --> 00:13:00,789 And yes, there are buildings between it 379 00:13:00,790 --> 00:13:01,790 and then there aren't. 380 00:13:02,990 --> 00:13:04,959 And this is what the cityscape looked 381 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:06,489 like after the explosion. 382 00:13:06,490 --> 00:13:08,499 And this, as I said, was just about under 383 00:13:08,500 --> 00:13:10,569 half of the total destructive energy 384 00:13:10,570 --> 00:13:12,459 that went into, you know, flattening 385 00:13:12,460 --> 00:13:13,389 these buildings. 386 00:13:13,390 --> 00:13:15,519 Now, the other almost half 387 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:17,139 went into heat radiation that can 388 00:13:17,140 --> 00:13:19,269 instantly and with the speed of light, 389 00:13:19,270 --> 00:13:21,579 literally set things on fire 390 00:13:21,580 --> 00:13:23,409 at a distance. Now, the thing that you 391 00:13:23,410 --> 00:13:25,869 see on the left is the shadow 392 00:13:25,870 --> 00:13:28,089 of this ring kind 393 00:13:28,090 --> 00:13:29,089 of device that you see there. 394 00:13:29,090 --> 00:13:31,029 So the bomb exploded to the left and 395 00:13:31,030 --> 00:13:33,279 front of the picture and where the heat 396 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,529 radiation hit the wall between 397 00:13:35,530 --> 00:13:37,599 it's well created some sort of 398 00:13:37,600 --> 00:13:39,459 ash, I would guess, and made the wall 399 00:13:39,460 --> 00:13:42,459 lighter. But where it hit the metal, 400 00:13:42,460 --> 00:13:43,809 this didn't happen. And so it leaves a 401 00:13:43,810 --> 00:13:44,739 shadow. 402 00:13:44,740 --> 00:13:46,809 And a similar thing happened to 403 00:13:46,810 --> 00:13:48,699 the woman who was photographed on the 404 00:13:48,700 --> 00:13:50,799 right, the burn marks on 405 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:52,029 her body. This is going to be the only 406 00:13:52,030 --> 00:13:53,199 picture of injured people. 407 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,929 I'm sorry I will show this, but it's very 408 00:13:55,930 --> 00:13:56,930 illustrative. 409 00:13:57,940 --> 00:14:00,369 The burn marks on her back matched 410 00:14:00,370 --> 00:14:02,469 the pattern of color that was on her 411 00:14:02,470 --> 00:14:04,599 clothing and whether clothing 412 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,699 was darker. There was more heat radiation 413 00:14:06,700 --> 00:14:08,829 absorbed, and this meant that the 414 00:14:08,830 --> 00:14:10,929 skin was burned worse than in 415 00:14:10,930 --> 00:14:12,969 other places where the garment was not as 416 00:14:12,970 --> 00:14:14,409 light or was not touching 417 00:14:15,490 --> 00:14:17,229 her skin at the moment of the explosion. 418 00:14:18,370 --> 00:14:19,719 Now, the third thing, of course, the 419 00:14:19,720 --> 00:14:21,609 radiation causes radiation poisoning. 420 00:14:21,610 --> 00:14:23,799 It destroys the DNA 421 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:25,659 and human cells. And this leads to 422 00:14:25,660 --> 00:14:27,699 reproductive errors, which leads to a 423 00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:29,709 very ugly sickness. And I chose not to 424 00:14:29,710 --> 00:14:31,599 put any pictures of it in it. 425 00:14:31,600 --> 00:14:33,939 Now, this sickness usually 426 00:14:33,940 --> 00:14:35,769 has a time of several days. 427 00:14:35,770 --> 00:14:37,719 It takes before the really bad effects 428 00:14:37,720 --> 00:14:39,969 set in. So most of the people were sort 429 00:14:39,970 --> 00:14:41,439 of walking around. 430 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,359 Well, yeah, some of them were walking 431 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,159 around the day after the explosion 432 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:46,059 wondering what happened. 433 00:14:46,060 --> 00:14:48,579 And then many of them additionally 434 00:14:48,580 --> 00:14:50,649 had to go and find medical help because 435 00:14:50,650 --> 00:14:52,509 then only they realized that they 436 00:14:52,510 --> 00:14:54,099 contracted some sort of sickness as an 437 00:14:54,100 --> 00:14:55,539 after effect of the explosion, which, of 438 00:14:55,540 --> 00:14:56,769 course, was not known. 439 00:14:56,770 --> 00:14:59,229 They thought there was some sort of 440 00:14:59,230 --> 00:15:01,569 incredibly powerful bomb and now the city 441 00:15:01,570 --> 00:15:03,759 is gone. But, hey, I'm alive. 442 00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:05,169 But then this after effect of 443 00:15:05,170 --> 00:15:07,239 radioactivity and radiation poisoning set 444 00:15:07,240 --> 00:15:08,229 in, which was not known. 445 00:15:08,230 --> 00:15:09,579 So people didn't know what was happening 446 00:15:09,580 --> 00:15:11,889 to them. This was made especially 447 00:15:11,890 --> 00:15:14,049 worse because rain falling through 448 00:15:14,050 --> 00:15:16,179 the ash, the radioactive 449 00:15:16,180 --> 00:15:18,459 ash of the fallout from the burning 450 00:15:18,460 --> 00:15:20,529 of the city, the 451 00:15:20,530 --> 00:15:23,019 water rain falling, washed out this ash 452 00:15:23,020 --> 00:15:24,939 and got into people's systems because 453 00:15:24,940 --> 00:15:26,289 they were drinking the water because 454 00:15:26,290 --> 00:15:28,299 obviously there was no other form of 455 00:15:28,300 --> 00:15:30,729 water supply available at the time. 456 00:15:30,730 --> 00:15:33,609 So it's a pretty, pretty bad weapon. 457 00:15:33,610 --> 00:15:35,889 Now, to get back on a lighter note, let's 458 00:15:35,890 --> 00:15:37,389 see what would happen if this happened 459 00:15:37,390 --> 00:15:39,039 with a modern bomb on a modern city. 460 00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:40,719 And let's say the United States chose to 461 00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:41,720 bomb this Congress 462 00:15:43,150 --> 00:15:45,369 with a 10 megaton bomb, which is the 463 00:15:45,370 --> 00:15:48,339 biggest device that they have invented. 464 00:15:48,340 --> 00:15:50,439 Why? Well, something about Snowden 465 00:15:50,440 --> 00:15:52,479 and the NSA and, you know, there is 466 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:53,739 probably lots of reasons. 467 00:15:54,910 --> 00:15:57,219 Now, this may sound funny, but think 468 00:15:57,220 --> 00:15:58,449 about it with drone strikes. 469 00:15:58,450 --> 00:16:00,589 This is about the way it works, right? 470 00:16:00,590 --> 00:16:02,709 Some guy and some people next to him, but 471 00:16:02,710 --> 00:16:03,939 bomb them anyway. 472 00:16:03,940 --> 00:16:05,229 So what would happen? 473 00:16:06,550 --> 00:16:08,769 We see here a map of the city of Hamburg. 474 00:16:08,770 --> 00:16:10,899 And this is a wonderful tool 475 00:16:10,900 --> 00:16:12,669 called Nuch Map. I've put the address 476 00:16:12,670 --> 00:16:15,399 there and you can calculate 477 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:17,169 you just give it some location on a map 478 00:16:17,170 --> 00:16:19,239 and it knows about population density and 479 00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:20,889 stuff. You can even simulate wind 480 00:16:20,890 --> 00:16:23,499 direction, fallout, everything. 481 00:16:23,500 --> 00:16:25,569 So if they chose with this large weapon 482 00:16:25,570 --> 00:16:27,249 to bomb Congress, then the city of 483 00:16:27,250 --> 00:16:29,319 Hamburg would be pretty much gone. 484 00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:30,969 At least half the population would be 485 00:16:30,970 --> 00:16:33,009 dead. There would be a crater two 486 00:16:33,010 --> 00:16:35,019 kilometers in diameter, and pretty much 487 00:16:35,020 --> 00:16:37,119 all the populated areas of the city would 488 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,369 have their buildings flattened. 489 00:16:39,370 --> 00:16:41,199 So that is what would happen. 490 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:43,449 Now, think about the destructive 491 00:16:43,450 --> 00:16:45,639 power of just one of these weapons 492 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:47,709 and now observe how many there are. 493 00:16:47,710 --> 00:16:49,809 And you will 494 00:16:49,810 --> 00:16:51,909 see that the United States 495 00:16:51,910 --> 00:16:53,649 and Russia, what used to be the Soviet 496 00:16:53,650 --> 00:16:56,139 Union, have the largest number 497 00:16:56,140 --> 00:16:57,789 of these nuclear weapons. 498 00:16:57,790 --> 00:17:01,089 And then there's small numbers and 499 00:17:01,090 --> 00:17:02,889 small numbers of nuclear weapons in just 500 00:17:02,890 --> 00:17:04,568 a handful of other countries. 501 00:17:04,569 --> 00:17:06,159 And the terms that we use to describe 502 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:08,139 these situations is vertical 503 00:17:08,140 --> 00:17:10,358 proliferation for the number of nuclear 504 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:11,979 weapons that are in some place. 505 00:17:11,980 --> 00:17:13,809 This tells us that for vertical 506 00:17:13,810 --> 00:17:15,969 proliferation, the US and Russia are 507 00:17:15,970 --> 00:17:18,429 the biggest well, the biggest problems. 508 00:17:18,430 --> 00:17:20,679 And for horizontal proliferation, 509 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:22,239 we might find it interesting to find out 510 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:23,949 how we can prevent more countries from 511 00:17:23,950 --> 00:17:26,229 getting nuclear weapons or even reducing 512 00:17:26,230 --> 00:17:28,299 the number of countries so that we can 513 00:17:28,300 --> 00:17:30,339 focus better on disarming those that are 514 00:17:30,340 --> 00:17:32,499 there now 515 00:17:32,500 --> 00:17:33,549 for vertical proliferation. 516 00:17:33,550 --> 00:17:35,649 This is a time chart of how many 517 00:17:35,650 --> 00:17:37,869 weapons, how many nuclear 518 00:17:37,870 --> 00:17:39,939 warheads the United States and the Soviet 519 00:17:39,940 --> 00:17:42,009 Union or Russia had at different points 520 00:17:42,010 --> 00:17:43,179 in time. And we can see that it was 521 00:17:43,180 --> 00:17:44,180 basically growing 522 00:17:45,460 --> 00:17:47,379 and a bit different, you know, in 523 00:17:47,380 --> 00:17:49,509 distinct fashion. This is all to do with 524 00:17:49,510 --> 00:17:51,639 economies and politics of the Cold 525 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:53,349 War. I'm not going to get very much into 526 00:17:53,350 --> 00:17:54,399 that. 527 00:17:54,400 --> 00:17:56,769 But one interesting feature we can see 528 00:17:56,770 --> 00:17:58,509 is that the beginning of the 90s, there 529 00:17:58,510 --> 00:18:00,489 was this rapid decline in the arsenals of 530 00:18:00,490 --> 00:18:01,509 both states. 531 00:18:01,510 --> 00:18:03,639 And this was due to contracts 532 00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:06,219 that these two countries negotiated 533 00:18:06,220 --> 00:18:08,769 that would say, OK, the prospect 534 00:18:08,770 --> 00:18:11,109 of destruction if one of us, 535 00:18:11,110 --> 00:18:13,059 too, chose to attack the other is bad 536 00:18:13,060 --> 00:18:15,489 enough as it is, we might as well 537 00:18:15,490 --> 00:18:17,679 limit the number of nuclear warheads 538 00:18:17,680 --> 00:18:20,479 just to have some sort of calculable. 539 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:21,670 There was this notion that 540 00:18:22,900 --> 00:18:25,149 you could really plan and then you could 541 00:18:25,150 --> 00:18:27,279 control the idea of nuclear war 542 00:18:27,280 --> 00:18:29,679 if it had broken out. 543 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:31,809 And, well, there's no games of reducing 544 00:18:31,810 --> 00:18:33,159 the number of weapons that you have. 545 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:35,289 They were a big tool, as you can see, 546 00:18:35,290 --> 00:18:37,389 for almost now, for most 547 00:18:37,390 --> 00:18:39,609 of the decades, there have been different 548 00:18:39,610 --> 00:18:40,599 treaties in effect. 549 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:42,669 And as it now stands, both of 550 00:18:42,670 --> 00:18:45,519 these countries will should not have 551 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:47,139 more than a couple of thousand nuclear 552 00:18:47,140 --> 00:18:49,509 warheads and active duty. 553 00:18:49,510 --> 00:18:51,579 But verification is a big problem going 554 00:18:51,580 --> 00:18:54,069 to present this 555 00:18:54,070 --> 00:18:55,089 at the end a little bit. 556 00:18:56,300 --> 00:18:58,219 Verification means that, well, OK, now 557 00:18:58,220 --> 00:18:59,809 they agree they've signed a contract, OK, 558 00:18:59,810 --> 00:19:01,639 you get rid of some of your weapons and 559 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:03,649 you'll get rid of some of your weapons. 560 00:19:03,650 --> 00:19:04,969 Now prove it. 561 00:19:04,970 --> 00:19:06,889 Well, this is extremely difficult because 562 00:19:06,890 --> 00:19:09,409 obviously Russia is not going to let 563 00:19:09,410 --> 00:19:11,659 United States nuclear engineers just walk 564 00:19:11,660 --> 00:19:14,089 into their building, you know, bomb 565 00:19:14,090 --> 00:19:16,159 building, building 566 00:19:16,160 --> 00:19:18,259 and start to take them apart or look 567 00:19:18,260 --> 00:19:19,909 at the construction plans or anything. 568 00:19:19,910 --> 00:19:21,889 You have to involve other countries. 569 00:19:21,890 --> 00:19:23,539 You have to involve technical methods. 570 00:19:23,540 --> 00:19:25,039 There's things called information 571 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:26,329 barriers, and it gets really, really 572 00:19:26,330 --> 00:19:27,330 complicated. 573 00:19:28,370 --> 00:19:29,869 OK, so that much for the vertical 574 00:19:29,870 --> 00:19:32,179 proliferation, which as we've seen, 575 00:19:32,180 --> 00:19:34,249 leaves us with a large enough number 576 00:19:34,250 --> 00:19:35,859 we have at the moment. 577 00:19:35,860 --> 00:19:38,059 Oh, yeah. This is one funny treaty 578 00:19:38,060 --> 00:19:39,829 that the United States and Russia signed 579 00:19:39,830 --> 00:19:40,830 in 1994. 580 00:19:42,530 --> 00:19:44,869 This was the targeting treaty which 581 00:19:44,870 --> 00:19:47,029 in which both parties assured 582 00:19:47,030 --> 00:19:49,309 the other, OK, we're not pointing our 583 00:19:49,310 --> 00:19:51,409 missiles at you anymore. 584 00:19:51,410 --> 00:19:53,659 If there was a missile that could be said 585 00:19:53,660 --> 00:19:55,549 to some target, we would set the target 586 00:19:55,550 --> 00:19:56,809 to undefined. 587 00:19:56,810 --> 00:19:59,029 Or if it's a rocket that absolutely 588 00:19:59,030 --> 00:20:01,099 needs a target to operate, we will set it 589 00:20:01,100 --> 00:20:02,209 into the ocean. 590 00:20:02,210 --> 00:20:04,369 This is the Minuteman three rocket that 591 00:20:04,370 --> 00:20:05,899 is still deployed in the United States. 592 00:20:05,900 --> 00:20:08,149 But how difficult 593 00:20:08,150 --> 00:20:09,559 do you think it would be and how much 594 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:10,909 time do you think it would take to 595 00:20:10,910 --> 00:20:13,339 actually load a new set of targets 596 00:20:13,340 --> 00:20:15,599 right into the 1960s mode? 597 00:20:15,600 --> 00:20:17,209 Well, no, not at all. 598 00:20:17,210 --> 00:20:18,709 This was a symbolic treaty, but that 599 00:20:18,710 --> 00:20:19,759 doesn't mean it was useless. 600 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,919 You know, it was a gesture that defined 601 00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:23,629 much of the atmosphere of the early and 602 00:20:23,630 --> 00:20:25,219 mid 90s. 603 00:20:25,220 --> 00:20:27,499 And the negotiations for disarmament 604 00:20:27,500 --> 00:20:29,269 of these weapons and other sorts of 605 00:20:29,270 --> 00:20:31,549 weapons is what's called a trust 606 00:20:31,550 --> 00:20:33,889 building. Measures now to get into 607 00:20:33,890 --> 00:20:35,989 the mindset of the 1960s, which 608 00:20:35,990 --> 00:20:38,269 was when one of the most important 609 00:20:38,270 --> 00:20:40,459 treaties of nuclear disarmament 610 00:20:40,460 --> 00:20:42,139 was signed, like to present you with a 611 00:20:42,140 --> 00:20:44,329 very short song written 612 00:20:44,330 --> 00:20:46,219 and sung by Tom Lehrer and American 613 00:20:46,220 --> 00:20:47,869 political comedian that only had a very 614 00:20:47,870 --> 00:20:49,939 short career of 615 00:20:49,940 --> 00:20:51,889 absolutely brilliant political satire in 616 00:20:51,890 --> 00:20:53,509 the United States in the 60s. 617 00:20:53,510 --> 00:20:55,219 We're going to be listening to him to get 618 00:20:55,220 --> 00:20:56,989 a feeling of what people were thinking 619 00:20:56,990 --> 00:20:59,569 about nuclear proliferation in the 1960s. 620 00:21:09,660 --> 00:21:11,849 First, we got the bomb, and that was 621 00:21:11,850 --> 00:21:13,739 good because we love peace and 622 00:21:13,740 --> 00:21:15,899 motherhood, then Russia got the bomb, 623 00:21:15,900 --> 00:21:17,849 but that's OK because the balance of 624 00:21:17,850 --> 00:21:19,499 power is maintained that way. 625 00:21:19,500 --> 00:21:20,500 Who's next? 626 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,049 France got the bomb, but don't you grieve 627 00:21:27,050 --> 00:21:28,459 because they are on our side? 628 00:21:28,460 --> 00:21:30,539 I believe China got the bomb 629 00:21:30,540 --> 00:21:31,819 but have no fears. 630 00:21:31,820 --> 00:21:34,069 They can't wipe us out for at least five 631 00:21:34,070 --> 00:21:35,450 years. What's next? 632 00:21:37,790 --> 00:21:40,309 So I just pause here for a second. 633 00:21:40,310 --> 00:21:42,170 He's asking who is next and 634 00:21:44,360 --> 00:21:46,969 the things that he he's describing 635 00:21:46,970 --> 00:21:48,769 without the mention of the United 636 00:21:48,770 --> 00:21:50,509 Kingdom, which apparently didn't matter 637 00:21:50,510 --> 00:21:51,510 much at all to him. 638 00:21:53,570 --> 00:21:55,759 Five nations had managed to 639 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,529 develop nuclear weapons by themselves and 640 00:21:57,530 --> 00:21:59,059 tested them successfully and even 641 00:21:59,060 --> 00:22:01,009 developed fusion devices, which you see 642 00:22:01,010 --> 00:22:02,089 on the bottom timeline. 643 00:22:03,590 --> 00:22:05,719 France, he says, is on our side, 644 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,819 I believe, by which he means that France 645 00:22:07,820 --> 00:22:09,889 developed, even though it's a sort of a 646 00:22:09,890 --> 00:22:11,989 member of NATO, it developed the 647 00:22:11,990 --> 00:22:14,269 nuclear force explicitly to be separate 648 00:22:14,270 --> 00:22:16,399 from NATO, so different from the 649 00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:17,989 United Kingdom, which has its nuclear 650 00:22:17,990 --> 00:22:19,609 arsenal integrated into NATO. 651 00:22:19,610 --> 00:22:21,979 France wanted this as a tool for, 652 00:22:21,980 --> 00:22:23,809 you know, to maintain and guarantee their 653 00:22:23,810 --> 00:22:24,810 sovereignty. 654 00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:26,809 OK, now we're going to be listening to 655 00:22:26,810 --> 00:22:28,669 Tom Lehrer, what he thinks is going to 656 00:22:28,670 --> 00:22:29,869 happen after that. 657 00:22:34,090 --> 00:22:36,519 Up in Indonesia claimed that they 658 00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,739 were going to get one any day. 659 00:22:38,740 --> 00:22:40,479 South Africa wants to. 660 00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,729 That's right. One for the black and one 661 00:22:42,730 --> 00:22:44,619 for the White House next time. 662 00:22:48,630 --> 00:22:50,929 Egypt's gonna 663 00:22:50,930 --> 00:22:53,459 get one jump 664 00:22:53,460 --> 00:22:56,119 just to use on, 665 00:22:56,120 --> 00:22:57,120 you know. 666 00:22:58,490 --> 00:23:01,279 So Israel is getting 667 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,069 tense, wants one in self defense. 668 00:23:04,070 --> 00:23:06,319 The Lord is my shepherd, says the Psalm, 669 00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,509 but just in case, we've got to get 670 00:23:08,510 --> 00:23:09,510 a bomb. 671 00:23:15,670 --> 00:23:17,859 Luxembourg is next to gold 672 00:23:17,860 --> 00:23:19,989 and who knows, maybe Monaco 673 00:23:19,990 --> 00:23:22,569 will try to stay serene and calm 674 00:23:22,570 --> 00:23:25,239 when Alabama gets the bomb. 675 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,549 Next the next news, 676 00:23:27,550 --> 00:23:29,709 my 677 00:23:29,710 --> 00:23:30,710 next. 678 00:23:33,710 --> 00:23:36,409 So that was that apparent, yes. 679 00:23:36,410 --> 00:23:37,410 Thank you, Tom. 680 00:23:42,100 --> 00:23:43,959 Now, luckily, Luxembourg and Monaco did 681 00:23:43,960 --> 00:23:46,149 not happen, and I've been unable 682 00:23:46,150 --> 00:23:47,859 to find out, I bet someone of you could 683 00:23:47,860 --> 00:23:49,869 tell me if there are actually nuclear 684 00:23:49,870 --> 00:23:51,549 weapons stationed in the state of Alabama 685 00:23:51,550 --> 00:23:53,349 and the United States, as Tom, that 686 00:23:53,350 --> 00:23:54,789 indicates that might be a cause for 687 00:23:54,790 --> 00:23:55,790 concern. 688 00:23:56,710 --> 00:23:57,849 So what did happen next? 689 00:23:57,850 --> 00:23:59,529 Right. He mentioned Indonesia not going 690 00:23:59,530 --> 00:24:01,389 to be talking about that much anymore 691 00:24:01,390 --> 00:24:02,589 because it didn't turn out to be an 692 00:24:02,590 --> 00:24:05,019 important player. But Israel, obviously. 693 00:24:06,390 --> 00:24:07,449 And so let's see what happens. 694 00:24:07,450 --> 00:24:10,899 So in this climate in 1968, 695 00:24:10,900 --> 00:24:12,879 the International Atomic Agency was 696 00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,579 founded and had brokered this 697 00:24:15,580 --> 00:24:18,249 nuclear nuclear nonproliferation treaty 698 00:24:18,250 --> 00:24:20,709 that was meant to prevent a larger 699 00:24:20,710 --> 00:24:22,899 number of states getting nuclear 700 00:24:22,900 --> 00:24:25,059 weapons. And the deal is there. 701 00:24:25,060 --> 00:24:27,549 The deal is five states can ever 702 00:24:27,550 --> 00:24:29,829 have nuclear weapons, and 703 00:24:29,830 --> 00:24:32,079 that is the USA, Russia, the UK, France 704 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:33,639 and China, which had managed to do so. 705 00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:35,289 By that point. 706 00:24:35,290 --> 00:24:37,239 Everyone else can never have nuclear 707 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,739 weapons, but they can get nuclear 708 00:24:38,740 --> 00:24:41,169 reactors, you know, for power generation 709 00:24:41,170 --> 00:24:43,329 and the economy and everything. 710 00:24:43,330 --> 00:24:44,949 And there will be safeguards, which means 711 00:24:44,950 --> 00:24:46,869 that the IAEA will maintain a presence 712 00:24:46,870 --> 00:24:48,999 and will make inspections in order to 713 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,519 watch that there is no nuclear material, 714 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,279 you know, made 715 00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,109 push to the side for nuclear weapons 716 00:24:56,110 --> 00:24:57,789 construction, which in the end did 717 00:24:57,790 --> 00:24:59,589 happen, though, which is why I've 718 00:24:59,590 --> 00:25:01,839 outlined that point and read non-nuclear 719 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:04,509 weapon states do get nuclear 720 00:25:04,510 --> 00:25:06,909 energy technology, and that is a problem 721 00:25:06,910 --> 00:25:08,659 for nuclear weapons proliferation. 722 00:25:08,660 --> 00:25:09,660 And it's just a fact. 723 00:25:11,050 --> 00:25:13,209 OK, as you see, the big five 724 00:25:13,210 --> 00:25:14,829 and a large number of other states 725 00:25:14,830 --> 00:25:16,959 actually find this a great deal. 726 00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:18,849 Five states in the world currently do 727 00:25:18,850 --> 00:25:20,619 not. And we're going to be looking at who 728 00:25:20,620 --> 00:25:22,119 these five states are and what happened 729 00:25:22,120 --> 00:25:23,120 there. 730 00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,529 So first is Israel, 731 00:25:26,530 --> 00:25:29,499 which already in the 1960s managed to, 732 00:25:29,500 --> 00:25:31,689 as it is thought, managed to develop 733 00:25:31,690 --> 00:25:33,159 nuclear weapons. 734 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,739 Now, the technology and technological 735 00:25:35,740 --> 00:25:37,419 help from France and Germany has been 736 00:25:37,420 --> 00:25:38,559 pretty well documented. 737 00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,539 But it's every everything is very secret. 738 00:25:40,540 --> 00:25:42,939 And Israel has never admitted to 739 00:25:42,940 --> 00:25:43,989 possessing nuclear weapons. 740 00:25:43,990 --> 00:25:45,219 It's sort of an open secret in the 741 00:25:45,220 --> 00:25:46,109 community. 742 00:25:46,110 --> 00:25:48,219 It gets very, very awkward at diplomatic 743 00:25:48,220 --> 00:25:50,439 meetings because there will be like, OK, 744 00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,089 the nuclear weapon states and everybody 745 00:25:52,090 --> 00:25:53,800 looks at Israel is was like, what? 746 00:25:56,850 --> 00:25:58,919 They're their official policy 747 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,049 is that they would not be the first to 748 00:26:01,050 --> 00:26:02,939 introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle 749 00:26:02,940 --> 00:26:05,459 East, that's the most explicit 750 00:26:05,460 --> 00:26:08,139 thing anyone's ever gotten them to say. 751 00:26:08,140 --> 00:26:09,209 OK, the next day. 752 00:26:09,210 --> 00:26:11,849 Now we're talking about 10 years later 753 00:26:11,850 --> 00:26:14,129 is India, which managed by means 754 00:26:14,130 --> 00:26:16,559 of very, you know, industrious work. 755 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,719 And some brilliant nuclear physicist 756 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:19,720 like Bahbah 757 00:26:20,940 --> 00:26:22,679 managed to develop nuclear weapons of 758 00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:23,639 their own. 759 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:24,989 And the first nuclear test that they 760 00:26:24,990 --> 00:26:26,969 conducted was in 1974. 761 00:26:26,970 --> 00:26:29,249 It was called the smiling butat test, 762 00:26:29,250 --> 00:26:30,539 and they declared it a peaceful 763 00:26:30,540 --> 00:26:31,540 explosion, 764 00:26:32,950 --> 00:26:35,099 OK? This led because they were 765 00:26:35,100 --> 00:26:36,959 in breach of the Nuclear Nonproliferation 766 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:38,909 Treaty, actually, to a nuclear embargo. 767 00:26:38,910 --> 00:26:40,799 That should mean that no other state in 768 00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:42,509 the world that has signed the treaty 769 00:26:42,510 --> 00:26:44,609 could sell any nuclear 770 00:26:44,610 --> 00:26:46,259 power technology to India. 771 00:26:46,260 --> 00:26:47,969 But in the course of the decades, it 772 00:26:47,970 --> 00:26:49,379 turned out that India is too interesting 773 00:26:49,380 --> 00:26:51,689 a market for power companies 774 00:26:51,690 --> 00:26:53,039 to actually be bound by things like 775 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:54,089 international contracts. 776 00:26:54,090 --> 00:26:56,309 And so now United States 777 00:26:56,310 --> 00:26:58,379 and other companies 778 00:26:58,380 --> 00:27:00,539 and economic actors are happily 779 00:27:00,540 --> 00:27:02,639 selling nuclear technology to India. 780 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:04,859 India is very explicit in saying that 781 00:27:04,860 --> 00:27:06,989 the nonproliferation treaty is unfair 782 00:27:06,990 --> 00:27:08,519 because some states get to have nuclear 783 00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:10,199 weapons and other states can never have 784 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:11,189 nuclear weapons. 785 00:27:11,190 --> 00:27:13,019 And it would join the contract if they 786 00:27:13,020 --> 00:27:14,969 were awarded the status of the sixth 787 00:27:14,970 --> 00:27:16,259 nuclear power in the world. 788 00:27:18,000 --> 00:27:20,189 OK, Pakistan, they 789 00:27:20,190 --> 00:27:21,779 were motivated by conflict and by the 790 00:27:21,780 --> 00:27:23,549 breakup of their country, which ended in 791 00:27:23,550 --> 00:27:25,949 the in the founding of Bangladesh 792 00:27:25,950 --> 00:27:28,079 and very, very troublesome 793 00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,119 history. They also managed with some 794 00:27:30,120 --> 00:27:31,829 ingenuity of their own, especially by 795 00:27:31,830 --> 00:27:34,109 this gentleman, a metallurgist, a nuclear 796 00:27:34,110 --> 00:27:35,849 physicist called Abdul Qadeer Khan 797 00:27:36,990 --> 00:27:38,339 to develop nuclear weapons. 798 00:27:38,340 --> 00:27:41,489 But he had big help from 799 00:27:41,490 --> 00:27:43,889 a URENCO, which is a company 800 00:27:43,890 --> 00:27:46,109 that makes nuclear power technology 801 00:27:46,110 --> 00:27:47,999 in the Netherlands, where he worked 802 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,099 legally and looked at some documents 803 00:27:50,100 --> 00:27:52,349 and took some documents home and maybe 804 00:27:52,350 --> 00:27:54,329 shipped some materials home. 805 00:27:54,330 --> 00:27:55,679 And in the end, Pakistan was in 806 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,389 possession of a nuclear bomb through 807 00:27:57,390 --> 00:27:59,369 totally, you know, peaceful nuclear 808 00:27:59,370 --> 00:28:01,469 power, which where he had managed to 809 00:28:01,470 --> 00:28:03,599 circumvent the safeguards or where 810 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,239 they had been lax or even no safeguards 811 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:07,240 in place. 812 00:28:08,250 --> 00:28:10,349 The funny thing is Abdul Qadeer Khan 813 00:28:10,350 --> 00:28:12,449 has been suspected of having helped other 814 00:28:12,450 --> 00:28:14,639 countries, you know, try and implement 815 00:28:14,640 --> 00:28:16,739 a nuclear weapons program of their own, 816 00:28:16,740 --> 00:28:19,379 Iraq, Libya, North Korea. 817 00:28:19,380 --> 00:28:21,149 And so by some countries, he is 818 00:28:21,150 --> 00:28:22,889 considered to be, you know, a criminal 819 00:28:22,890 --> 00:28:24,569 because he has been proliferating nuclear 820 00:28:24,570 --> 00:28:25,619 weapons throughout the world. 821 00:28:25,620 --> 00:28:27,539 In Pakistan, though, he is considered an 822 00:28:27,540 --> 00:28:29,069 honored citizen and he has received high 823 00:28:29,070 --> 00:28:31,139 honors because they see it as 824 00:28:31,140 --> 00:28:33,779 an essential tool of maintaining 825 00:28:33,780 --> 00:28:35,999 and securing the sovereignty 826 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:37,000 of their state. 827 00:28:37,830 --> 00:28:40,019 Now, North Korea has also managed as the 828 00:28:40,020 --> 00:28:41,020 last country 829 00:28:42,210 --> 00:28:44,489 historically to develop nuclear 830 00:28:44,490 --> 00:28:45,389 weapons. 831 00:28:45,390 --> 00:28:47,639 They are guided by their ideology 832 00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:49,559 of self-reliance, you know, of never 833 00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:51,659 relying on anybody or any actor 834 00:28:51,660 --> 00:28:52,919 other than themselves. 835 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:54,359 And this, of course, means that to have 836 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,789 very powerful weapons under your control 837 00:28:56,790 --> 00:28:57,689 is a useful thing. 838 00:28:57,690 --> 00:28:59,819 Again, here, Abdul Qadeer Khan 839 00:28:59,820 --> 00:29:01,920 was implicated in having helped nuclear 840 00:29:03,090 --> 00:29:04,619 development in North Korea. 841 00:29:04,620 --> 00:29:06,809 The first nuclear test that 842 00:29:06,810 --> 00:29:09,209 North Korea conducted was in 2006. 843 00:29:09,210 --> 00:29:11,069 And that was actually the first test that 844 00:29:11,070 --> 00:29:12,569 had happened then in eight years. 845 00:29:12,570 --> 00:29:14,309 And we're going to be seeing that that 846 00:29:14,310 --> 00:29:16,469 actually was a big deal. 847 00:29:16,470 --> 00:29:19,109 So here's the updated conversation 848 00:29:19,110 --> 00:29:21,509 about the Nuclear Nonproliferation 849 00:29:21,510 --> 00:29:23,909 Treaty, where you see what the countries 850 00:29:23,910 --> 00:29:24,809 are thinking of all this. 851 00:29:24,810 --> 00:29:25,919 India doesn't like it. 852 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:27,329 Pakistan agrees with India. 853 00:29:27,330 --> 00:29:28,380 The only thing where they do 854 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:31,739 South Sudan, they have nothing 855 00:29:31,740 --> 00:29:33,359 to do with nuclear weapons at all. 856 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,099 They're just so new they haven't gotten 857 00:29:35,100 --> 00:29:36,100 around to signing it. 858 00:29:38,220 --> 00:29:40,319 OK, so this was the. 859 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:41,729 Yeah, and historically, there have been 860 00:29:41,730 --> 00:29:43,259 other cases. South Africa was also 861 00:29:43,260 --> 00:29:44,879 mentioned in the song by Tom Lehrer, and 862 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,649 they actually were seeking to develop 863 00:29:46,650 --> 00:29:48,419 nuclear weapons. 864 00:29:48,420 --> 00:29:50,369 They were motivated more by, you know, 865 00:29:50,370 --> 00:29:52,649 securing a strategic political position, 866 00:29:52,650 --> 00:29:54,839 which is also manifested 867 00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,519 in the fact that they developed these 868 00:29:56,520 --> 00:29:58,829 bulky gun 869 00:29:58,830 --> 00:30:01,079 type devices with uranium, uranium, which 870 00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,209 they had acquired by agreements with 871 00:30:03,210 --> 00:30:04,210 Israel. 872 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:06,629 And there have been no known. 873 00:30:06,630 --> 00:30:08,219 There was a small caveat, which you're 874 00:30:08,220 --> 00:30:09,569 going to see later. There have been no 875 00:30:09,570 --> 00:30:11,969 nuclear tests conducted by South Africa 876 00:30:11,970 --> 00:30:13,559 as far as we know. 877 00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,689 And luckily, the political shift that set 878 00:30:15,690 --> 00:30:16,690 in in South Africa 879 00:30:17,910 --> 00:30:19,589 at the end of the apartheid regime at the 880 00:30:19,590 --> 00:30:21,329 beginning of the 90s led to them 881 00:30:21,330 --> 00:30:23,999 abandoning their nuclear ambitions, 882 00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:26,699 submitting to IAEA safeguards, 883 00:30:26,700 --> 00:30:28,739 joining the nonproliferation treaty and 884 00:30:28,740 --> 00:30:31,229 ending, you know, their nuclear episode. 885 00:30:31,230 --> 00:30:33,179 And they're the first and only country to 886 00:30:33,180 --> 00:30:35,939 really have done so in this way so far. 887 00:30:35,940 --> 00:30:37,380 So that's could go South Africa. 888 00:30:43,590 --> 00:30:45,659 OK, these three states, the 889 00:30:45,660 --> 00:30:47,759 Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus, 890 00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:50,999 became nuclear states overnight 891 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,339 in a cold winter night in 1991, 892 00:30:53,340 --> 00:30:54,869 and you may guess how that happened. 893 00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:58,859 The state that had formerly possessed the 894 00:30:58,860 --> 00:31:00,059 nuclear weapons just wasn't there 895 00:31:00,060 --> 00:31:01,769 anymore. And they suddenly found that, 896 00:31:01,770 --> 00:31:03,149 OK, we're a new state now. 897 00:31:03,150 --> 00:31:04,200 Oh, we have nukes 898 00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,279 now. The control that they exerted 899 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,049 was limited because the weapons were 900 00:31:10,050 --> 00:31:11,369 placed on their territory. 901 00:31:11,370 --> 00:31:13,019 But they didn't have really operational 902 00:31:13,020 --> 00:31:14,640 control. They didn't have all the codes. 903 00:31:15,900 --> 00:31:18,179 They didn't necessarily have officers 904 00:31:18,180 --> 00:31:20,219 of their own who knew how to operate 905 00:31:20,220 --> 00:31:21,599 everything. So it was more of a 906 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,009 bargaining chip, but it was very 907 00:31:24,420 --> 00:31:26,009 it was very valuable to them. 908 00:31:26,010 --> 00:31:28,139 And in an enormous act of 909 00:31:28,140 --> 00:31:29,140 negotiation, 910 00:31:30,360 --> 00:31:32,759 it was managed to to convince 911 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:34,259 them to give up these nuclear weapons, to 912 00:31:34,260 --> 00:31:35,369 ship them back to Russia 913 00:31:36,660 --> 00:31:39,359 in exchange for money and guarantees 914 00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:41,729 of security, meaning, for example, 915 00:31:41,730 --> 00:31:43,859 that Russia, as the former hegemonic 916 00:31:43,860 --> 00:31:45,839 power of the Soviet Union, would never 917 00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,679 invade any of these states. 918 00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,859 That was 20 years ago. 919 00:31:49,860 --> 00:31:51,329 And Ukraine is not amused. 920 00:31:56,050 --> 00:31:57,050 OK, 921 00:31:58,150 --> 00:31:59,150 some other cases 922 00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,379 the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty just 923 00:32:02,380 --> 00:32:05,079 took, you know, a point in time to define 924 00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,059 for whom it is OK to have nuclear weapons 925 00:32:07,060 --> 00:32:08,829 and for whom it isn't, and other states 926 00:32:08,830 --> 00:32:10,239 that might, you know, technologically 927 00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:12,429 have been able to develop 928 00:32:12,430 --> 00:32:13,779 nuclear weapons of their own. 929 00:32:13,780 --> 00:32:15,609 You can find some lists where some names 930 00:32:15,610 --> 00:32:16,929 are floating around. Sweden, 931 00:32:16,930 --> 00:32:18,969 surprisingly, is mentioned a couple of 932 00:32:18,970 --> 00:32:20,529 times, Germany, Japan. 933 00:32:20,530 --> 00:32:22,449 But then they had political incentives 934 00:32:22,450 --> 00:32:23,709 not to do that. 935 00:32:23,710 --> 00:32:26,199 But some states do think it is unfair 936 00:32:26,200 --> 00:32:28,269 that just at some point in time it was OK 937 00:32:28,270 --> 00:32:29,829 to develop nuclear weapons and now it 938 00:32:29,830 --> 00:32:30,849 isn't for anyone else. 939 00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:34,329 They've even had military force used 940 00:32:34,330 --> 00:32:35,739 against them. On the right, we see 941 00:32:35,740 --> 00:32:36,819 satellite pictures. 942 00:32:36,820 --> 00:32:39,369 The upper one is from the 1980s 943 00:32:39,370 --> 00:32:42,159 in Iraq, and the lower one is from 2006 944 00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:44,349 in Syria, where the Israeli military 945 00:32:44,350 --> 00:32:46,479 bombed these these 946 00:32:46,480 --> 00:32:48,669 installations for fear of 947 00:32:48,670 --> 00:32:50,289 there being a production of nuclear 948 00:32:50,290 --> 00:32:51,969 weapons ongoing. 949 00:32:51,970 --> 00:32:54,129 And other states that have listed here 950 00:32:54,130 --> 00:32:56,259 have had political pressure put 951 00:32:56,260 --> 00:32:58,449 on them and prevented 952 00:32:58,450 --> 00:33:00,309 them from becoming nuclear states, which 953 00:33:00,310 --> 00:33:02,169 in the long run, I think is a good idea, 954 00:33:02,170 --> 00:33:03,819 because the less nuclear states we have, 955 00:33:03,820 --> 00:33:06,069 the better. But especially 956 00:33:06,070 --> 00:33:07,299 looking at the countries that did 957 00:33:07,300 --> 00:33:09,249 succeed, even though they were in breach 958 00:33:09,250 --> 00:33:10,599 of the nonproliferation treaty. 959 00:33:10,600 --> 00:33:12,819 Like India, Pakistan, 960 00:33:12,820 --> 00:33:14,619 this leads to a lot of resentment between 961 00:33:14,620 --> 00:33:16,779 certain groups of countries, especially 962 00:33:16,780 --> 00:33:19,329 between some Arab countries and Israel. 963 00:33:19,330 --> 00:33:21,499 OK, so, yeah, this is 964 00:33:21,500 --> 00:33:24,699 one big fuckup of the West now of Europe. 965 00:33:24,700 --> 00:33:26,889 Sharing is caring, as we know, and 966 00:33:26,890 --> 00:33:28,389 the United States is sharing their 967 00:33:28,390 --> 00:33:29,499 nuclear weapons with us. 968 00:33:29,500 --> 00:33:30,999 In a program called Nuclear Sharing, 969 00:33:32,500 --> 00:33:34,269 United States nuclear weapons are 970 00:33:34,270 --> 00:33:36,249 stationed in five countries in Europe, 971 00:33:36,250 --> 00:33:38,499 Germany, Italy, Turkey, Belgium 972 00:33:38,500 --> 00:33:39,489 and the Netherlands. Now they're 973 00:33:39,490 --> 00:33:40,899 stationed there. 974 00:33:40,900 --> 00:33:43,779 The nukes are inside non-nuclear 975 00:33:43,780 --> 00:33:46,209 weapons states under the nonproliferation 976 00:33:46,210 --> 00:33:47,319 treaty. 977 00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:48,669 Isn't that sort of breaching the 978 00:33:48,670 --> 00:33:49,869 nonproliferation treaty? 979 00:33:49,870 --> 00:33:51,489 Well, I think yes. And most sensible 980 00:33:51,490 --> 00:33:53,139 people think that this is a breach of the 981 00:33:53,140 --> 00:33:55,029 treaty and the United States, NATO should 982 00:33:55,030 --> 00:33:56,169 not be doing that. 983 00:33:56,170 --> 00:33:57,429 They have a position on this. 984 00:33:57,430 --> 00:33:59,349 If you ask them how can you be stationing 985 00:33:59,350 --> 00:34:01,149 nuclear weapons in Germany? 986 00:34:01,150 --> 00:34:03,249 And they say, well, they're only 987 00:34:03,250 --> 00:34:04,509 stationed, you know, we didn't give them 988 00:34:04,510 --> 00:34:06,399 away. They're under our control. 989 00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,468 But German pilots are trained 990 00:34:08,469 --> 00:34:10,509 on fighter jets. 991 00:34:10,510 --> 00:34:11,510 If they work 992 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:14,948 to throw these nuclear weapons. 993 00:34:14,949 --> 00:34:17,079 There is training going on to train 994 00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:19,448 German military pilots to throw a nuclear 995 00:34:19,449 --> 00:34:21,488 bomb. The United States Senate on, you 996 00:34:21,489 --> 00:34:23,379 know, just looking out for them. 997 00:34:23,380 --> 00:34:25,749 And this is a this is a real screamer. 998 00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,809 The NATO and the United States say the 999 00:34:28,810 --> 00:34:30,999 nonproliferation treaty is meant to keep 1000 00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:32,138 the peace. 1001 00:34:32,139 --> 00:34:34,299 If nuclear war breaks out, then 1002 00:34:34,300 --> 00:34:35,439 there's no peace anymore. 1003 00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,169 So it's OK if we give away the weapons, 1004 00:34:38,170 --> 00:34:40,238 even in peacetime, because they're meant 1005 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:41,239 for war. 1006 00:34:51,620 --> 00:34:54,678 Yes, there's no better explanation. 1007 00:34:54,679 --> 00:34:56,928 OK, so we might ask ourselves, is 1008 00:34:56,929 --> 00:34:58,499 the nonproliferation treaty working? 1009 00:34:58,500 --> 00:35:00,619 You know, are we preventing states 1010 00:35:00,620 --> 00:35:01,939 from getting nuclear weapons or is it 1011 00:35:01,940 --> 00:35:04,069 just one big unfair 1012 00:35:04,070 --> 00:35:05,629 fuckup of treaties? 1013 00:35:05,630 --> 00:35:07,759 Well, you can I'd like to look 1014 00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:08,749 at it this way. 1015 00:35:08,750 --> 00:35:10,909 At the middle of the 20th century, 1016 00:35:10,910 --> 00:35:13,129 it was relatively hard to develop 1017 00:35:13,130 --> 00:35:15,259 nuclear weapons. And five states did so 1018 00:35:15,260 --> 00:35:16,399 over the course of 20 years. 1019 00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:18,439 And they were well developed nations with 1020 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,899 large scientific resources. 1021 00:35:20,900 --> 00:35:22,189 After that, after the Nuclear 1022 00:35:22,190 --> 00:35:23,719 Nonproliferation Treaty had been signed 1023 00:35:23,720 --> 00:35:25,969 in 50 years, only four other 1024 00:35:25,970 --> 00:35:28,039 countries have joined the ranks of these 1025 00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,289 unofficially, even though nuclear 1026 00:35:30,290 --> 00:35:31,939 power and reactor technology has become 1027 00:35:31,940 --> 00:35:33,439 much more widely available. 1028 00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:35,719 And in terms of the spread of knowledge 1029 00:35:35,720 --> 00:35:37,369 about all these systems and the weapons, 1030 00:35:37,370 --> 00:35:39,169 it has actually become easier to attain 1031 00:35:39,170 --> 00:35:41,480 nuclear weapons. So I guess we can say 1032 00:35:42,620 --> 00:35:44,389 that the Nonproliferation Treaty is sort 1033 00:35:44,390 --> 00:35:46,340 of working for most of us. 1034 00:35:48,050 --> 00:35:50,149 Let's get to another topic, 1035 00:35:50,150 --> 00:35:51,289 which is nuclear testing. 1036 00:35:51,290 --> 00:35:52,969 You take a bomb that you have developed 1037 00:35:52,970 --> 00:35:54,289 and you're so proud of the bomb, you want 1038 00:35:54,290 --> 00:35:56,449 to show everybody how well it works and 1039 00:35:56,450 --> 00:35:58,729 you exploded somewhere and you take data 1040 00:35:58,730 --> 00:36:00,859 and you you being all science about 1041 00:36:00,860 --> 00:36:01,860 it. 1042 00:36:02,830 --> 00:36:04,899 And some states have gotten 1043 00:36:04,900 --> 00:36:07,089 some really horrible ideas about that. 1044 00:36:07,090 --> 00:36:08,769 This is a picture of the US military. 1045 00:36:08,770 --> 00:36:10,359 They used to do this kind of thing in the 1046 00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:11,360 1950s. 1047 00:36:12,460 --> 00:36:14,319 But other states have also had some some 1048 00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:16,149 very bad ideas about nuclear testing like 1049 00:36:16,150 --> 00:36:17,109 France. 1050 00:36:17,110 --> 00:36:20,169 Take a nice holiday paradise, 1051 00:36:20,170 --> 00:36:22,299 Pacific Atoll and decide to 1052 00:36:22,300 --> 00:36:23,320 bomb the shit out of it. 1053 00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:27,200 Poor thing. 1054 00:36:27,970 --> 00:36:30,279 OK, so nuclear testing is 1055 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:31,869 obviously destructive, disruptive, and 1056 00:36:31,870 --> 00:36:33,789 we're going to be looking about looking 1057 00:36:33,790 --> 00:36:34,790 at what it does 1058 00:36:36,230 --> 00:36:37,389 worldwide nuclear testing. 1059 00:36:37,390 --> 00:36:39,639 This is a chart of how many nuclear test 1060 00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,799 explosions have been done by what country 1061 00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,149 over the course of the century. 1062 00:36:43,150 --> 00:36:45,219 And there's two main features, I think, 1063 00:36:45,220 --> 00:36:47,709 of this graph that we can focus at and 1064 00:36:47,710 --> 00:36:49,749 try to find out what's happening there. 1065 00:36:49,750 --> 00:36:51,519 Again, we see that the United States and 1066 00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:54,009 the Soviet Union or Russia make up most 1067 00:36:54,010 --> 00:36:56,559 of the problem, most of the testing. 1068 00:36:57,970 --> 00:36:59,499 And then we see this gap at the end of 1069 00:36:59,500 --> 00:37:00,549 the 50s. 1070 00:37:00,550 --> 00:37:01,779 What happened there? 1071 00:37:01,780 --> 00:37:04,039 There was practically no nuclear tests 1072 00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:06,849 in 1958 and 59. 1073 00:37:06,850 --> 00:37:08,469 And then they sort of end at the 1074 00:37:08,470 --> 00:37:09,579 beginning of the 90s. 1075 00:37:09,580 --> 00:37:10,869 You know, there is some tests, but 1076 00:37:10,870 --> 00:37:12,639 compared to 10 or 20 years before, 1077 00:37:12,640 --> 00:37:15,309 nuclear testing has all but stopped. 1078 00:37:15,310 --> 00:37:17,199 And we're going to be looking at why this 1079 00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:19,269 happened. Now, two treaties have been 1080 00:37:19,270 --> 00:37:21,699 crucial in shaping this 1081 00:37:21,700 --> 00:37:23,949 state of affairs. That's the partial test 1082 00:37:23,950 --> 00:37:26,019 ban treaty of 1963 and 1083 00:37:26,020 --> 00:37:28,569 the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty of 1996 1084 00:37:28,570 --> 00:37:30,729 in very different situations, of course, 1085 00:37:30,730 --> 00:37:32,979 one during the height of the Cold War and 1086 00:37:32,980 --> 00:37:34,929 the other after that ended. 1087 00:37:34,930 --> 00:37:36,819 Now, the partial test ban treaty 1088 00:37:36,820 --> 00:37:39,639 prohibits nuclear test explosions 1089 00:37:39,640 --> 00:37:41,649 in the atmosphere, in the open air, in 1090 00:37:41,650 --> 00:37:42,819 outer space. 1091 00:37:42,820 --> 00:37:45,010 They did that and under water, 1092 00:37:46,390 --> 00:37:48,399 which kind of looked nicer, I guess, or 1093 00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:49,400 something. 1094 00:37:50,440 --> 00:37:51,759 So this is not allowed anymore. 1095 00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:53,199 And most of the states and most of the 1096 00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:54,969 important players signed this treaty, 1097 00:37:54,970 --> 00:37:57,129 France and China have never signed it. 1098 00:37:57,130 --> 00:37:59,289 And they have conducted atmospheric and 1099 00:37:59,290 --> 00:38:02,379 underwater nuclear tests after the 1960s. 1100 00:38:02,380 --> 00:38:04,659 But they mostly stopped in the 80s and 1101 00:38:04,660 --> 00:38:06,969 90s. France was the last actually 1102 00:38:06,970 --> 00:38:09,639 the last of the five 1103 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:11,319 nuclear weapon states, the five allowed 1104 00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:12,999 nuclear weapon states to make tests. 1105 00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:14,379 And that was in 1998. 1106 00:38:14,380 --> 00:38:15,759 North Korea has also not signed, but 1107 00:38:15,760 --> 00:38:18,009 overall, it was a pretty effective 1108 00:38:18,010 --> 00:38:20,769 treaty. Why did they sign this treaty? 1109 00:38:20,770 --> 00:38:23,499 Well, isotopes, that means 1110 00:38:23,500 --> 00:38:25,809 types of nuclear atoms 1111 00:38:25,810 --> 00:38:27,999 that are formed in nuclear explosions and 1112 00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:30,399 only in nuclear explosions 1113 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,109 have been released into the atmosphere in 1114 00:38:32,110 --> 00:38:33,909 large numbers because there was a lot of 1115 00:38:33,910 --> 00:38:34,839 testing going on. 1116 00:38:34,840 --> 00:38:36,729 And this release nuclear materials into 1117 00:38:36,730 --> 00:38:39,009 the atmosphere and of course, by currents 1118 00:38:39,010 --> 00:38:40,839 and rain and everything that managed to 1119 00:38:40,840 --> 00:38:42,939 spread all around the world 1120 00:38:42,940 --> 00:38:44,949 and to have were especially important 1121 00:38:44,950 --> 00:38:47,349 that a cesium 137 and 1122 00:38:47,350 --> 00:38:49,419 strontium 90 and they were 1123 00:38:49,420 --> 00:38:51,519 found actually in children's teeth and 1124 00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:53,619 in milk. And this happened 1125 00:38:53,620 --> 00:38:55,629 in the 50s and 60s in the United States. 1126 00:38:55,630 --> 00:38:57,879 They ask schoolchildren to send 1127 00:38:57,880 --> 00:38:59,409 in their milk teeth, the first teeth that 1128 00:38:59,410 --> 00:39:00,999 fell out, you know, when they were 1129 00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:03,639 growing up and send them in for science 1130 00:39:03,640 --> 00:39:05,469 in order to find out if nuclear testing 1131 00:39:05,470 --> 00:39:06,789 actually affected them. And the result 1132 00:39:06,790 --> 00:39:08,949 was, yes, yes, children 1133 00:39:08,950 --> 00:39:10,239 that lived in states where nuclear 1134 00:39:10,240 --> 00:39:12,489 testing was happening or was nearby 1135 00:39:12,490 --> 00:39:14,289 had higher levels of these isotopes in 1136 00:39:14,290 --> 00:39:16,359 their system. And when it pointed 1137 00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:18,579 to the article, you 1138 00:39:18,580 --> 00:39:20,259 can find it there. It's a publication 1139 00:39:20,260 --> 00:39:22,659 called The Appendix Dear Science. 1140 00:39:22,660 --> 00:39:24,189 It says, my name is Kathy. 1141 00:39:24,190 --> 00:39:26,179 That's just that's just so sweet. 1142 00:39:26,180 --> 00:39:27,369 OK, but it's macabre. 1143 00:39:27,370 --> 00:39:28,719 Of course, they were asked to send in, 1144 00:39:28,720 --> 00:39:30,099 you know, parts of their bodies to see 1145 00:39:30,100 --> 00:39:31,120 how radioactive they were. 1146 00:39:32,950 --> 00:39:35,019 OK, this is levels now 1147 00:39:35,020 --> 00:39:37,149 of these isotopes 1148 00:39:37,150 --> 00:39:38,859 in the in the atmosphere. 1149 00:39:38,860 --> 00:39:40,839 And you can see in the left graph that 1150 00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:42,519 the levels were steadily rising. 1151 00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,919 The the green curve is 1152 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:46,329 in Austria. So it's the northern 1153 00:39:46,330 --> 00:39:48,789 hemisphere and the southern 1154 00:39:48,790 --> 00:39:50,589 the red curve is the southern hemisphere, 1155 00:39:50,590 --> 00:39:53,179 where it took a little bit longer to 1156 00:39:53,180 --> 00:39:54,879 to spread around the globe because much 1157 00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:56,289 of the testing was done on the northern 1158 00:39:56,290 --> 00:39:57,290 hemisphere. 1159 00:39:58,720 --> 00:40:00,789 So we can see that, well, OK, the axis is 1160 00:40:00,790 --> 00:40:02,289 actually not very fairly put. 1161 00:40:02,290 --> 00:40:04,119 You can see that this is the natural 1162 00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:05,830 level of about half 1163 00:40:07,150 --> 00:40:08,739 of about 100. 1164 00:40:08,740 --> 00:40:10,269 What do we have there, actually? 1165 00:40:10,270 --> 00:40:11,799 Mega Curie's? 1166 00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:13,929 Yeah, it's a unit for radioactivity. 1167 00:40:15,370 --> 00:40:17,469 And it rose to almost double the 1168 00:40:17,470 --> 00:40:19,689 natural levels on the northern hemisphere 1169 00:40:19,690 --> 00:40:20,649 in the 1960s. 1170 00:40:20,650 --> 00:40:22,149 And this concern politicians and 1171 00:40:22,150 --> 00:40:23,139 concerned the public. 1172 00:40:23,140 --> 00:40:25,209 And so there was talk of stopping nuclear 1173 00:40:25,210 --> 00:40:26,769 explosions in the atmosphere and that was 1174 00:40:26,770 --> 00:40:27,699 what happened. 1175 00:40:27,700 --> 00:40:28,959 Now, I'd like to point you to the graph 1176 00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,269 on the right, which you will notice 1177 00:40:31,270 --> 00:40:32,259 is marked in French. 1178 00:40:32,260 --> 00:40:34,330 And it is therefore a very good reason. 1179 00:40:36,100 --> 00:40:38,769 There also we see levels of radioactivity 1180 00:40:38,770 --> 00:40:40,149 rising over the course of time and 1181 00:40:40,150 --> 00:40:42,339 peaking in the 1960s before 1182 00:40:42,340 --> 00:40:44,439 then falling off over a longer period 1183 00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:46,599 of time. Now, what is this data? 1184 00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,239 Well, a French nuclear 1185 00:40:49,240 --> 00:40:51,399 research institution in Bordeaux put 1186 00:40:51,400 --> 00:40:53,169 bottles of red wine in a gamma 1187 00:40:53,170 --> 00:40:55,329 spectrometer and they look for lines 1188 00:40:55,330 --> 00:40:57,460 of cesium 137, the signature 1189 00:40:58,780 --> 00:41:00,099 of this isotope. 1190 00:41:00,100 --> 00:41:02,319 Now, this specific isotope, as I said, 1191 00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:03,729 is not natural. It does not naturally 1192 00:41:03,730 --> 00:41:05,649 occurring earth, but only when nuclear 1193 00:41:05,650 --> 00:41:07,119 explosions happen. 1194 00:41:07,120 --> 00:41:09,279 So they actually devised a way 1195 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:11,409 to find out for some bottle of 1196 00:41:11,410 --> 00:41:13,569 wine if it could credibly come 1197 00:41:13,570 --> 00:41:15,429 from before the 50s or not, because if 1198 00:41:15,430 --> 00:41:17,589 there's any trace of cesium 137 in 1199 00:41:17,590 --> 00:41:19,899 it, it must have been 1200 00:41:19,900 --> 00:41:21,909 closed in the 50s or later. 1201 00:41:23,320 --> 00:41:24,579 And so they did that. And this, of 1202 00:41:24,580 --> 00:41:25,509 course, affected. 1203 00:41:25,510 --> 00:41:27,969 This is useful for art history, 1204 00:41:27,970 --> 00:41:29,619 you know, finding out when a picture was 1205 00:41:29,620 --> 00:41:31,239 sealed or something for many kinds of 1206 00:41:31,240 --> 00:41:33,309 things. You can just you 1207 00:41:33,310 --> 00:41:35,169 can just look at stuff in terms of did it 1208 00:41:35,170 --> 00:41:36,759 happen before or after the start of 1209 00:41:36,760 --> 00:41:37,760 nuclear testing? 1210 00:41:39,130 --> 00:41:41,199 Now, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is 1211 00:41:41,200 --> 00:41:42,969 a treaty with a very simple purpose, and 1212 00:41:42,970 --> 00:41:45,279 it's rather short and it says don't 1213 00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:46,989 cause nuclear explosions, don't call them 1214 00:41:46,990 --> 00:41:48,999 peaceful like India did. 1215 00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:50,860 Don't try to hide. It just don't. 1216 00:41:52,240 --> 00:41:53,769 And the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 1217 00:41:53,770 --> 00:41:56,019 Organization is supposed 1218 00:41:56,020 --> 00:41:57,159 to look over this treaty. 1219 00:41:57,160 --> 00:41:59,349 And its operation is being prepared 1220 00:41:59,350 --> 00:42:00,849 by a preparatory commission, which leads 1221 00:42:00,850 --> 00:42:02,619 to this kind of bulky name of the 1222 00:42:02,620 --> 00:42:03,819 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty 1223 00:42:03,820 --> 00:42:05,350 Organization Preparatory Commission. 1224 00:42:09,490 --> 00:42:10,989 I've had the chance to practice. 1225 00:42:12,580 --> 00:42:14,889 So they are setting up 1226 00:42:14,890 --> 00:42:16,809 a network to see where nuclear explosions 1227 00:42:16,810 --> 00:42:18,099 happen. And they have a big campaign 1228 00:42:18,100 --> 00:42:20,469 going on of raising awareness for nuclear 1229 00:42:20,470 --> 00:42:21,939 testing. And the problem that it poses, 1230 00:42:21,940 --> 00:42:23,799 because, as I said, nuclear testing has 1231 00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:25,449 not happened much in the world over the 1232 00:42:25,450 --> 00:42:26,509 last 20 years. 1233 00:42:26,510 --> 00:42:28,629 There's not as big a sense of that 1234 00:42:28,630 --> 00:42:30,669 being a problem of nuclear testing being 1235 00:42:30,670 --> 00:42:32,649 an actual problem and a danger, as there 1236 00:42:32,650 --> 00:42:34,269 was, for example, in the 1960s. 1237 00:42:34,270 --> 00:42:36,579 And they sponsored a video 1238 00:42:36,580 --> 00:42:38,289 that is called nineteen forty five to 1239 00:42:38,290 --> 00:42:40,209 ninety eight by an artist named Sal 1240 00:42:40,210 --> 00:42:41,210 Hashimoto. 1241 00:42:41,950 --> 00:42:43,989 And it's got this sort of video game, you 1242 00:42:43,990 --> 00:42:46,059 know, of visuals and 1243 00:42:46,060 --> 00:42:47,799 it shows all the nuclear explosions that 1244 00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:49,300 happened over the course of these years. 1245 00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:51,789 And it's got eerie sound effects. 1246 00:42:51,790 --> 00:42:54,069 It's about 15 minutes long and it's very 1247 00:42:54,070 --> 00:42:55,819 depressing and eerie to watch. 1248 00:42:55,820 --> 00:42:57,249 Now, of course, we don't have the time 1249 00:42:57,250 --> 00:42:59,679 for that. And I found out I 1250 00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,209 don't know if this will be funny or 1251 00:43:01,210 --> 00:43:03,339 horribly inappropriate, but we'll see 1252 00:43:03,340 --> 00:43:04,959 if you speed this up real fast and give 1253 00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:06,489 it funny music then. 1254 00:43:06,490 --> 00:43:07,510 OK, let's look at it. 1255 00:43:27,890 --> 00:43:29,849 OK, yeah. 1256 00:43:35,140 --> 00:43:36,889 Mr. Hashimoto, I'm very sorry. 1257 00:43:38,530 --> 00:43:40,239 So you may have wondered about the 1258 00:43:40,240 --> 00:43:42,009 explosions going on in Africa, that was 1259 00:43:42,010 --> 00:43:43,509 France, because they didn't want nuclear 1260 00:43:43,510 --> 00:43:44,679 explosions in their own country. 1261 00:43:44,680 --> 00:43:45,789 They had Algeria for that. 1262 00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:50,079 OK, so the CTBTO 1263 00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:52,209 PrepCom is an organization that is 1264 00:43:52,210 --> 00:43:54,039 supposed to find out when a nuclear test 1265 00:43:54,040 --> 00:43:56,049 is happening. And this is not as easy as 1266 00:43:56,050 --> 00:43:57,639 it seems. 1267 00:43:57,640 --> 00:43:59,649 They had a big, big field exercise going 1268 00:43:59,650 --> 00:44:01,749 on in Jordan just a couple of weeks ago 1269 00:44:01,750 --> 00:44:03,879 where hundreds or even thousands of 1270 00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,129 officers and technicians 1271 00:44:06,130 --> 00:44:08,199 went to Jordan and had a big exercise 1272 00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:09,639 of what it would look like to actually 1273 00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:11,739 inspect somewhere where they suspect 1274 00:44:11,740 --> 00:44:13,239 that a nuclear explosion might have taken 1275 00:44:13,240 --> 00:44:15,009 place. They will collect air samples, 1276 00:44:15,010 --> 00:44:16,329 they will collect ground samples, they 1277 00:44:16,330 --> 00:44:18,519 will collect witness testimony and 1278 00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:20,289 then try to find out if in some state 1279 00:44:20,290 --> 00:44:22,119 that is being inspected, there has been a 1280 00:44:22,120 --> 00:44:23,120 nuclear explosion. 1281 00:44:24,310 --> 00:44:26,199 Why is this hard? Well, we have a case 1282 00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:27,849 study which we can look at, and that is 1283 00:44:27,850 --> 00:44:30,039 the Vela incident, 1284 00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,139 which describes something that happened 1285 00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,589 on a on a day in 1979 1286 00:44:35,590 --> 00:44:37,089 in the southern Indian Ocean. 1287 00:44:37,090 --> 00:44:39,249 The United States had for a 1288 00:44:39,250 --> 00:44:40,809 large amount of money and over a long 1289 00:44:40,810 --> 00:44:42,879 time developed a specialized set of 1290 00:44:42,880 --> 00:44:44,679 satellites to look for nuclear 1291 00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:45,969 explosions. They were equipped with 1292 00:44:45,970 --> 00:44:48,189 cameras and with radiation detectors, and 1293 00:44:48,190 --> 00:44:50,259 they were sent all around the world to 1294 00:44:50,260 --> 00:44:51,489 look for nuclear explosions. 1295 00:44:51,490 --> 00:44:53,019 And then something happened. 1296 00:44:53,020 --> 00:44:54,369 But they can't really say if it was a 1297 00:44:54,370 --> 00:44:55,719 nuclear explosion. 1298 00:44:55,720 --> 00:44:57,909 This is the definition of you had one 1299 00:44:57,910 --> 00:44:59,110 job and failed, 1300 00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,709 but much of it is classified. 1301 00:45:02,710 --> 00:45:04,779 So we can't really know there is 1302 00:45:04,780 --> 00:45:05,739 a theory. 1303 00:45:05,740 --> 00:45:07,149 You could almost call it conspiracy 1304 00:45:07,150 --> 00:45:09,369 theory. Nothing is confirmed that 1305 00:45:09,370 --> 00:45:11,679 it may have been a joint operation by 1306 00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,839 South Africa and Israel, which 1307 00:45:13,840 --> 00:45:15,969 would be if this were true and there 1308 00:45:15,970 --> 00:45:17,109 is nothing to support that. 1309 00:45:17,110 --> 00:45:19,269 I want to stress this the only test 1310 00:45:19,270 --> 00:45:21,099 that South Africa or Israel had ever 1311 00:45:21,100 --> 00:45:22,100 conducted. 1312 00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:24,999 But the satellites were not useless after 1313 00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,219 all. They at one time found 1314 00:45:27,220 --> 00:45:29,409 that radiation was coming from 1315 00:45:29,410 --> 00:45:31,489 the wrong direction, from outer space. 1316 00:45:31,490 --> 00:45:33,099 And this led to the discovery of gamma 1317 00:45:33,100 --> 00:45:35,019 ray bursts and other galaxies, which was 1318 00:45:35,020 --> 00:45:36,479 a big deal for astrophysics. 1319 00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:37,399 So. 1320 00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:39,610 All right, thank you, Vola program. 1321 00:45:44,030 --> 00:45:46,099 OK, so the CTBTO 1322 00:45:46,100 --> 00:45:48,199 is setting up this is setting up this 1323 00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:49,549 measurement network, and it's a very 1324 00:45:49,550 --> 00:45:51,799 intricate and large network we see at 1325 00:45:51,800 --> 00:45:54,229 the top left and infrasound station 1326 00:45:54,230 --> 00:45:56,389 in some barren part of Norway and 1327 00:45:56,390 --> 00:45:58,319 the top right, we see a radionuclide a 1328 00:45:58,320 --> 00:46:00,079 radioactivity measurement station in 1329 00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:02,179 China and peaking at 1330 00:46:02,180 --> 00:46:04,789 the bottom left there is and 1331 00:46:04,790 --> 00:46:06,259 there is, what's it called? 1332 00:46:06,260 --> 00:46:08,389 A seismic measurement station in Niger, 1333 00:46:08,390 --> 00:46:09,349 in Africa. 1334 00:46:09,350 --> 00:46:11,089 And to the bottom right there is a hydro 1335 00:46:11,090 --> 00:46:12,889 acoustic. So a sound traveling through 1336 00:46:12,890 --> 00:46:14,899 water measurement station near the South 1337 00:46:14,900 --> 00:46:17,119 Pole. And they have set up I 1338 00:46:17,120 --> 00:46:19,219 think it is more than a thousand stations 1339 00:46:19,220 --> 00:46:20,749 by now that span all around the globe. 1340 00:46:20,750 --> 00:46:22,819 And they started only about 15 years 1341 00:46:22,820 --> 00:46:24,319 ago. So that's a job well done. 1342 00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:25,969 And now if something like the Valla 1343 00:46:25,970 --> 00:46:27,829 incident were to happen again, they had a 1344 00:46:27,830 --> 00:46:29,509 good chance of finding out if it was a 1345 00:46:29,510 --> 00:46:30,560 nuclear explosion or not. 1346 00:46:31,970 --> 00:46:34,399 The only chance that they had of trying 1347 00:46:34,400 --> 00:46:36,589 out the system of sensors and everything 1348 00:46:36,590 --> 00:46:38,569 was for the North Korean nuclear test of 1349 00:46:38,570 --> 00:46:40,789 2006 and the subsequent two 1350 00:46:40,790 --> 00:46:42,199 tests that North Korea has done. 1351 00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:44,389 Now, nobody will ever admit 1352 00:46:44,390 --> 00:46:46,219 that they might have been happy that 1353 00:46:46,220 --> 00:46:47,929 nuclear that North Korea conducted a 1354 00:46:47,930 --> 00:46:49,279 nuclear test because there's nothing to 1355 00:46:49,280 --> 00:46:51,409 be happy about. But it was a test 1356 00:46:51,410 --> 00:46:52,969 for this network that they set up where 1357 00:46:52,970 --> 00:46:54,079 they couldn't really do much of 1358 00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:56,089 simulation. So it was a real world test 1359 00:46:56,090 --> 00:46:57,199 that was at least interesting. 1360 00:46:58,610 --> 00:47:01,009 And they managed to confirm that there 1361 00:47:01,010 --> 00:47:02,569 actually was a nuclear test there. 1362 00:47:03,830 --> 00:47:05,089 What's the problem? So the city. 1363 00:47:05,090 --> 00:47:06,169 But it sounds pretty nice. 1364 00:47:06,170 --> 00:47:07,519 OK, testing has almost stopped. 1365 00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:09,709 We've got this measurement network set 1366 00:47:09,710 --> 00:47:11,479 up. We've got the CTBTO working on it 1367 00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:12,590 all, spreading awareness. 1368 00:47:14,090 --> 00:47:16,339 Well, the treaty is not in effect. 1369 00:47:16,340 --> 00:47:18,649 It's just, you know, a 1370 00:47:18,650 --> 00:47:20,059 bunch of people have signed, work has 1371 00:47:20,060 --> 00:47:21,529 started, but it's not an effective 1372 00:47:21,530 --> 00:47:23,120 treaty. It's not binding yet. 1373 00:47:24,570 --> 00:47:26,539 And this is because the treaty has sort 1374 00:47:26,540 --> 00:47:28,879 of a self limiting provision 1375 00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:31,159 that only if certain states sign 1376 00:47:31,160 --> 00:47:33,199 and ratify the treaty, it will become 1377 00:47:33,200 --> 00:47:35,209 effective and the signatures and 1378 00:47:35,210 --> 00:47:37,189 ratification that are missing. 1379 00:47:37,190 --> 00:47:38,659 I've laid out there the USA, 1380 00:47:39,920 --> 00:47:41,809 Barack Obama, when he ran for his first 1381 00:47:41,810 --> 00:47:43,609 presidential term, promised that he would 1382 00:47:43,610 --> 00:47:45,589 really go for it and try to push Congress 1383 00:47:45,590 --> 00:47:47,809 to ratify the treaty. 1384 00:47:47,810 --> 00:47:48,739 But then nothing happened. 1385 00:47:48,740 --> 00:47:50,089 Of course, it doesn't have much control 1386 00:47:50,090 --> 00:47:51,409 over Congress and they just don't want to 1387 00:47:51,410 --> 00:47:53,239 do it because they say that for the 1388 00:47:53,240 --> 00:47:54,589 safety of the United States, it is 1389 00:47:54,590 --> 00:47:56,479 essential to retain at least the 1390 00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:58,339 possibility of starting nuclear tests 1391 00:47:58,340 --> 00:48:00,499 again, even if they haven't done so for 1392 00:48:00,500 --> 00:48:01,789 almost 25 years now. 1393 00:48:03,530 --> 00:48:05,119 So that's a problem. 1394 00:48:05,120 --> 00:48:07,339 But we can see again, 1395 00:48:07,340 --> 00:48:09,319 as well as with the nonproliferation 1396 00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:11,359 treaty, it's sort of an awkward position 1397 00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:12,949 of things, half working and half not 1398 00:48:12,950 --> 00:48:15,289 working because nuclear tests have 1399 00:48:15,290 --> 00:48:17,359 de facto almost stopped when 1400 00:48:17,360 --> 00:48:19,249 the treaty was signed in 1996. 1401 00:48:19,250 --> 00:48:21,169 Only a couple of tests by India, 1402 00:48:21,170 --> 00:48:22,999 Pakistan, France. 1403 00:48:23,000 --> 00:48:24,139 Oh, I did. Wrong by France. 1404 00:48:24,140 --> 00:48:25,999 I said the last test was in 98, wasn't 1405 00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:27,000 96. 1406 00:48:27,710 --> 00:48:29,209 So very few tests happened 1407 00:48:30,260 --> 00:48:31,639 and it's almost working, even though the 1408 00:48:31,640 --> 00:48:33,649 treaty, as I said, is not in effect. 1409 00:48:33,650 --> 00:48:36,319 So, OK, we I guess we should push 1410 00:48:36,320 --> 00:48:38,419 for more ratification now to the 1411 00:48:38,420 --> 00:48:40,129 part of me telling you what you can do 1412 00:48:40,130 --> 00:48:41,479 and what everyone can do and what I would 1413 00:48:41,480 --> 00:48:43,009 like, you know, people to get involved in 1414 00:48:43,010 --> 00:48:45,049 and think about when it comes to nuclear 1415 00:48:45,050 --> 00:48:46,339 weapons, hackers. 1416 00:48:46,340 --> 00:48:48,079 That is what this conference is about. 1417 00:48:48,080 --> 00:48:50,419 By a large part, you can look 1418 00:48:50,420 --> 00:48:52,699 up a talk by what's good, 1419 00:48:52,700 --> 00:48:54,139 where he does a great summary of the 1420 00:48:54,140 --> 00:48:56,209 technological problems of nuclear 1421 00:48:56,210 --> 00:48:57,259 disarmament. 1422 00:48:57,260 --> 00:48:59,059 You can find it on the media C.C.C. 1423 00:48:59,060 --> 00:49:00,060 repository. 1424 00:49:00,890 --> 00:49:02,929 And there he will say that, as I said, 1425 00:49:02,930 --> 00:49:04,609 those things like information barriers 1426 00:49:04,610 --> 00:49:05,989 and stuff like that. 1427 00:49:05,990 --> 00:49:07,879 And there's a lot of hard work to be 1428 00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:09,949 done. And if you look at Woodstock, 1429 00:49:09,950 --> 00:49:11,539 then you can find out where you could 1430 00:49:11,540 --> 00:49:13,129 help if you're a coder or, you know, 1431 00:49:13,130 --> 00:49:14,360 you're into hardware and stuff. 1432 00:49:16,250 --> 00:49:18,199 OK, this slide I've been looking forward 1433 00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:19,529 to for months since I thought of that 1434 00:49:19,530 --> 00:49:20,530 talk. 1435 00:49:21,050 --> 00:49:22,759 If you are a citizen of some specific 1436 00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:24,859 country, then this might help you 1437 00:49:24,860 --> 00:49:26,599 choose a path where you'd like to push 1438 00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,429 your government to do something very 1439 00:49:28,430 --> 00:49:30,139 interested. Is there someone from 1440 00:49:30,140 --> 00:49:31,790 Pakistan or India and the audience? 1441 00:49:35,340 --> 00:49:37,109 OK, pity I don't see anybody, but if 1442 00:49:37,110 --> 00:49:39,209 you're listening in, you 1443 00:49:39,210 --> 00:49:41,039 could use, you know, your democratic 1444 00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,199 pressure to to push 1445 00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:44,259 for CTD signature. 1446 00:49:44,260 --> 00:49:45,719 Of course, the North Korea, that is a bit 1447 00:49:45,720 --> 00:49:47,879 awkward. I wouldn't want them to push 1448 00:49:47,880 --> 00:49:49,050 their government for anything. 1449 00:49:50,310 --> 00:49:52,319 And I actually I don't even want to joke 1450 00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:53,320 about it. So, 1451 00:49:54,510 --> 00:49:56,609 OK, but even citizens in all of these 1452 00:49:56,610 --> 00:49:58,049 countries here in Europe, we should get 1453 00:49:58,050 --> 00:49:59,519 rid of the nuclear sharing program of 1454 00:49:59,520 --> 00:50:00,690 NATO and. 1455 00:50:08,260 --> 00:50:10,119 And it would be a big help if the CTBTO 1456 00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:11,769 actually went into effect finally. 1457 00:50:11,770 --> 00:50:13,659 Now what everyone can do, regardless of 1458 00:50:13,660 --> 00:50:15,999 where they live or where they work, 1459 00:50:16,000 --> 00:50:17,379 what needs to be done, we need to find a 1460 00:50:17,380 --> 00:50:19,209 concept that sort of replaces the Nuclear 1461 00:50:19,210 --> 00:50:20,649 Nonproliferation Treaty because it's 1462 00:50:20,650 --> 00:50:22,659 unfair, as certain countries think, and 1463 00:50:22,660 --> 00:50:24,519 it doesn't really fit into the Times 1464 00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:25,939 anymore. 1465 00:50:25,940 --> 00:50:28,269 The CTBTO, this wonderful organization 1466 00:50:28,270 --> 00:50:29,679 helping to set up this network, needs 1467 00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:31,959 help, especially with publicity, 1468 00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:33,759 because they're not very well known, but 1469 00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:34,760 they're doing great work. 1470 00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:37,149 You can do that. You can find them on 1471 00:50:37,150 --> 00:50:38,829 Twitter. They put out a lot of great 1472 00:50:38,830 --> 00:50:40,029 stuff. 1473 00:50:40,030 --> 00:50:41,529 And we need to solve the problem of 1474 00:50:41,530 --> 00:50:43,179 proliferation through nuclear power 1475 00:50:43,180 --> 00:50:45,459 because where there are nuclear reactors, 1476 00:50:45,460 --> 00:50:46,989 there is a chance of someone developing 1477 00:50:46,990 --> 00:50:48,459 weapons and this needs to be solved. 1478 00:50:48,460 --> 00:50:50,799 Somehow we could devise better reactors. 1479 00:50:50,800 --> 00:50:52,179 We could get rid of nuclear power. 1480 00:50:52,180 --> 00:50:53,349 There's different ways, but we just have 1481 00:50:53,350 --> 00:50:55,419 to find one or and in the 1482 00:50:55,420 --> 00:50:57,939 end, what we all might do is just 1483 00:50:57,940 --> 00:51:01,149 do away with got to have nuclear weapons. 1484 00:51:01,150 --> 00:51:02,979 This may be a long way off, but I hope 1485 00:51:02,980 --> 00:51:03,969 we'll get there. 1486 00:51:03,970 --> 00:51:05,049 And thank you very much for your 1487 00:51:05,050 --> 00:51:06,050 attention. 1488 00:51:25,620 --> 00:51:27,509 Thank you for a great talk. 1489 00:51:27,510 --> 00:51:30,059 We now have about 10 minutes of Q&A, 1490 00:51:30,060 --> 00:51:32,249 if you absolutely insist on leaving 1491 00:51:32,250 --> 00:51:34,259 now, please be very, very quiet to not 1492 00:51:34,260 --> 00:51:35,609 disturb the Q&A. 1493 00:51:35,610 --> 00:51:37,709 And if you can just stay until 1494 00:51:37,710 --> 00:51:39,239 the end of the talk, it's only ten more 1495 00:51:39,240 --> 00:51:41,489 minutes. We have six mikes. 1496 00:51:41,490 --> 00:51:43,589 There's one, two, three, four, five and 1497 00:51:43,590 --> 00:51:44,669 six in the back. 1498 00:51:44,670 --> 00:51:46,759 So just line up after the microphone. 1499 00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:49,079 So we are so I can see who has to 1500 00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,389 who wants to ask a question. 1501 00:51:51,390 --> 00:51:53,879 Also, if you're in the chat there, CIC 1502 00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,519 and we have a human computer interface 1503 00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,649 here to read them out. 1504 00:51:58,650 --> 00:52:00,659 So please, microphone number one, 1505 00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:03,780 our high yield on 1506 00:52:05,220 --> 00:52:06,659 nuclear physics. 1507 00:52:06,660 --> 00:52:08,729 Medical physics got something 1508 00:52:08,730 --> 00:52:10,979 to remark at first. 1509 00:52:10,980 --> 00:52:13,499 Right now we are seeing China deploying 1510 00:52:13,500 --> 00:52:15,569 these days, the first 1511 00:52:15,570 --> 00:52:17,909 submarines and submarines nuclear 1512 00:52:17,910 --> 00:52:19,139 missile crisis. 1513 00:52:19,140 --> 00:52:21,449 So as they are joining the submarine 1514 00:52:21,450 --> 00:52:23,729 force with nuclear rockets 1515 00:52:23,730 --> 00:52:26,219 for a second strike capability 1516 00:52:26,220 --> 00:52:28,709 right now, and of course, 1517 00:52:28,710 --> 00:52:31,289 it is possible to build a nuclear arm of 1518 00:52:31,290 --> 00:52:32,969 natural uranium. 1519 00:52:32,970 --> 00:52:35,039 It will only weigh 30 tons. 1520 00:52:35,040 --> 00:52:36,840 So you can't deploy it, but it works. 1521 00:52:39,410 --> 00:52:41,539 And as a hollow shell, 1522 00:52:41,540 --> 00:52:44,029 loads have the advantage of producing 1523 00:52:44,030 --> 00:52:46,159 more power because you don't need a metal 1524 00:52:46,160 --> 00:52:49,759 shell to increase the combustion, 1525 00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:51,829 so as your produce the 1526 00:52:51,830 --> 00:52:53,899 pressure to the inside, you keep the 1527 00:52:53,900 --> 00:52:55,129 stuff together. 1528 00:52:55,130 --> 00:52:58,429 So could you produce material 1529 00:52:58,430 --> 00:53:00,439 is done. 1530 00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:02,629 So my question is, 1531 00:53:02,630 --> 00:53:04,880 where did you get the data from 1532 00:53:06,380 --> 00:53:08,569 pollution in Japan 1533 00:53:08,570 --> 00:53:09,949 after the nuclear strikes? 1534 00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:13,159 That wasn't data about pollution 1535 00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:13,669 in Japan. 1536 00:53:13,670 --> 00:53:16,219 So you mentioned in the sheet, 1537 00:53:16,220 --> 00:53:18,369 but this is a move to the left to 1538 00:53:18,370 --> 00:53:20,989 say, no, our model is just nope, nope. 1539 00:53:20,990 --> 00:53:22,399 We have to 1540 00:53:23,420 --> 00:53:25,549 excuse me referring on what. 1541 00:53:25,550 --> 00:53:27,049 Right. What to. 1542 00:53:27,050 --> 00:53:28,429 So there is. 1543 00:53:28,430 --> 00:53:30,199 Oh, well, those are estimates. 1544 00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:31,489 Of course, those are estimates. 1545 00:53:31,490 --> 00:53:33,619 Of course, there were no there were 1546 00:53:33,620 --> 00:53:35,359 no real good measurement methods. 1547 00:53:35,360 --> 00:53:37,369 And if they were, then no data was ever 1548 00:53:37,370 --> 00:53:38,370 published. 1549 00:53:39,830 --> 00:53:40,799 Oh, yes. 1550 00:53:40,800 --> 00:53:42,529 OK, could you please and carry on the 1551 00:53:42,530 --> 00:53:43,639 discussion after the talk. 1552 00:53:43,640 --> 00:53:45,799 We have only a few minutes of Q&A 1553 00:53:45,800 --> 00:53:47,479 Internet. Please go ahead. 1554 00:53:51,300 --> 00:53:52,829 Internet is slow today. 1555 00:53:52,830 --> 00:53:54,689 Yeah, sorry, um. 1556 00:53:58,280 --> 00:54:00,439 That's the comprehensive test ban applied 1557 00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:01,460 to private persons. 1558 00:54:04,070 --> 00:54:06,589 No, I don't think so, but 1559 00:54:06,590 --> 00:54:08,479 it's geared towards state actors. 1560 00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:10,279 You know, it's not a bad question, but 1561 00:54:10,280 --> 00:54:12,379 most of the countries have laws that 1562 00:54:12,380 --> 00:54:14,179 say you can't cause a nuclear explosion. 1563 00:54:15,650 --> 00:54:17,819 You can look this up in the German 1564 00:54:17,820 --> 00:54:19,909 because that's where it says that's how I 1565 00:54:19,910 --> 00:54:21,859 fear a nuclear explosion. 1566 00:54:21,860 --> 00:54:24,169 And if I find this vinegar, it's 1567 00:54:24,170 --> 00:54:25,170 stuffed. 1568 00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:34,639 Followings speaking listeners, that means 1569 00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:36,049 that you have to go to jail for five 1570 00:54:36,050 --> 00:54:38,599 years if you cause a nuclear explosion. 1571 00:54:38,600 --> 00:54:40,159 Microphone number three, please. 1572 00:54:41,240 --> 00:54:43,609 Hello. In the 2600 1573 00:54:43,610 --> 00:54:45,529 magazine recently, there was an article 1574 00:54:45,530 --> 00:54:48,079 stating that the Minuteman missile 1575 00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:50,179 is locally controlled and 1576 00:54:50,180 --> 00:54:52,609 after a countdown expires, 1577 00:54:52,610 --> 00:54:55,129 it can be controlled remotely. 1578 00:54:55,130 --> 00:54:57,259 It also stated that the Minuteman 1579 00:54:57,260 --> 00:54:59,419 crews had turned this into 1580 00:54:59,420 --> 00:55:01,639 a game where they would allow 1581 00:55:01,640 --> 00:55:04,009 the countdown to get as close to zero 1582 00:55:04,010 --> 00:55:06,259 as possible before resetting 1583 00:55:06,260 --> 00:55:07,249 it. 1584 00:55:07,250 --> 00:55:08,989 Have you heard about this? 1585 00:55:08,990 --> 00:55:11,359 Can you state on its accuracy 1586 00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,039 and have any other countries done 1587 00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:14,899 anything similar? 1588 00:55:14,900 --> 00:55:16,399 I'm not aware of this report, but there 1589 00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,049 has been a report that was widely 1590 00:55:18,050 --> 00:55:20,719 publicized as John Oliver's 1591 00:55:20,720 --> 00:55:22,759 television show, where they talked about 1592 00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,309 bad things happening in the United States 1593 00:55:25,310 --> 00:55:27,139 nuclear force. There was cheating going 1594 00:55:27,140 --> 00:55:29,239 on during safety tests and things like 1595 00:55:29,240 --> 00:55:31,459 this. So it wouldn't surprise 1596 00:55:31,460 --> 00:55:33,739 me very much there during the Cold 1597 00:55:33,740 --> 00:55:35,839 War that developed this mindset of, 1598 00:55:35,840 --> 00:55:38,329 you know, it's all just big numbers. 1599 00:55:38,330 --> 00:55:40,579 You cannot imagine a million dead people 1600 00:55:40,580 --> 00:55:41,779 if you push one button. 1601 00:55:41,780 --> 00:55:44,239 So you just kind of go crazy 1602 00:55:44,240 --> 00:55:45,589 and think it's a game or something. 1603 00:55:45,590 --> 00:55:46,590 That's what happens. 1604 00:55:48,460 --> 00:55:49,630 Number four, please. 1605 00:55:50,650 --> 00:55:52,479 Yes, I have a rather short question, 1606 00:55:52,480 --> 00:55:54,429 don't you think we need nuclear weapons 1607 00:55:54,430 --> 00:55:57,009 now to deter Vladimir Putin 1608 00:55:57,010 --> 00:55:58,300 from doing nasty things? 1609 00:56:00,230 --> 00:56:02,659 Well, no, because Russia 1610 00:56:02,660 --> 00:56:04,549 and the United States are both nuclear 1611 00:56:04,550 --> 00:56:06,619 powers and there 1612 00:56:06,620 --> 00:56:08,479 is not much sense in threatening someone 1613 00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:10,309 with the use of nuclear force ever, 1614 00:56:10,310 --> 00:56:12,529 especially if they have their own 1615 00:56:12,530 --> 00:56:13,530 Putin does. 1616 00:56:14,180 --> 00:56:16,129 Well, yes, but so do many others. 1617 00:56:16,130 --> 00:56:17,959 And I don't want the war escalating, so 1618 00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:19,550 let's not threaten anyone with that. 1619 00:56:27,350 --> 00:56:29,479 Internet in 1620 00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:31,609 Hashimoto is house video, 1621 00:56:31,610 --> 00:56:33,709 you can see month long process of no 1622 00:56:33,710 --> 00:56:35,569 nuclear tests at all. 1623 00:56:35,570 --> 00:56:37,069 Only when someone starts again, other 1624 00:56:37,070 --> 00:56:39,349 countries immediately, immediately react 1625 00:56:39,350 --> 00:56:40,580 by tests of their own, 1626 00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:44,569 some kind of ping pong going on. 1627 00:56:45,590 --> 00:56:46,969 Good question, I guess. 1628 00:56:46,970 --> 00:56:48,769 Well, some of this may be, you know, the 1629 00:56:48,770 --> 00:56:50,899 inaccuracy of the records of when exactly 1630 00:56:50,900 --> 00:56:52,159 the tests did happened, though, that is 1631 00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:53,389 actually pretty well documented. 1632 00:56:53,390 --> 00:56:55,069 No, I would say the testing mostly 1633 00:56:55,070 --> 00:56:56,959 happened in in campaigns. 1634 00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:58,759 They would do a shot of five nuclear 1635 00:56:58,760 --> 00:57:00,829 tests over, let's say, a week, 1636 00:57:00,830 --> 00:57:02,089 and then there would be a pause of 1637 00:57:02,090 --> 00:57:04,279 several of several weeks 1638 00:57:04,280 --> 00:57:05,719 or months before the next campaign 1639 00:57:05,720 --> 00:57:06,799 started. 1640 00:57:06,800 --> 00:57:08,779 So I would I would say that during the 1641 00:57:08,780 --> 00:57:10,609 60s, which was where we saw the video 1642 00:57:10,610 --> 00:57:12,409 from, this was mostly coincidence. 1643 00:57:12,410 --> 00:57:14,749 But of course, in 1998, 1644 00:57:14,750 --> 00:57:16,639 in the case of India and Pakistan, that 1645 00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:17,569 was not a coincidence. 1646 00:57:17,570 --> 00:57:19,849 India conducted a nuclear test and 1647 00:57:19,850 --> 00:57:21,709 within a week after that, Pakistan 1648 00:57:21,710 --> 00:57:22,729 conducted a nuclear test. 1649 00:57:22,730 --> 00:57:24,050 And that was clearly a reaction. 1650 00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:27,639 Mike, number one, please. 1651 00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:29,739 Yes, thank you for this excellent talk. 1652 00:57:29,740 --> 00:57:31,809 I want to add a little detail when it 1653 00:57:31,810 --> 00:57:33,279 comes to the Comprehensive Test Ban 1654 00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:34,599 Treaty. 1655 00:57:34,600 --> 00:57:36,669 So basically, one of the backgrounds of 1656 00:57:36,670 --> 00:57:38,799 the US pushed in the 90s for the for 1657 00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:41,589 this treaty was that 1658 00:57:41,590 --> 00:57:42,790 the nuclear weapons 1659 00:57:43,840 --> 00:57:45,730 community deemed dissimulation simulation 1660 00:57:45,731 --> 00:57:47,889 capacities good enough not to 1661 00:57:47,890 --> 00:57:49,899 conduct any real tests anymore. 1662 00:57:49,900 --> 00:57:51,999 So the Clinton administrative sort 1663 00:57:52,000 --> 00:57:54,069 of forged a diplomatic initiative 1664 00:57:54,070 --> 00:57:56,409 out of it and basically 1665 00:57:56,410 --> 00:57:58,389 went ahead and pushed other countries to 1666 00:57:58,390 --> 00:58:00,939 sign this because they were confident 1667 00:58:00,940 --> 00:58:03,009 that they can test the weapons 1668 00:58:03,010 --> 00:58:04,249 virtually. 1669 00:58:04,250 --> 00:58:06,369 And apparently they gave some coats 1670 00:58:06,370 --> 00:58:08,709 to China and France sort of 1671 00:58:08,710 --> 00:58:10,719 did this test to recalibrate their models 1672 00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:12,129 in 96. 1673 00:58:12,130 --> 00:58:14,469 And now basically 1674 00:58:14,470 --> 00:58:17,139 the time that in the 90s 1675 00:58:17,140 --> 00:58:19,299 they thought they need or that they 1676 00:58:19,300 --> 00:58:21,369 could guarantee this 1677 00:58:21,370 --> 00:58:23,199 has run out. So basically, I said 20 1678 00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,719 years old, which is now 1679 00:58:25,720 --> 00:58:27,849 is what we can guarantee 1680 00:58:27,850 --> 00:58:30,969 all weapons to to work. 1681 00:58:30,970 --> 00:58:33,009 This is called a nuclear stockpile 1682 00:58:33,010 --> 00:58:34,209 stewardship program. 1683 00:58:34,210 --> 00:58:36,339 And they do verification in 1684 00:58:36,340 --> 00:58:37,689 the functionality of the weapons and 1685 00:58:37,690 --> 00:58:39,759 guarantee the military commanders that 1686 00:58:39,760 --> 00:58:40,869 they work. 1687 00:58:40,870 --> 00:58:42,639 So my question now is, do you expect new 1688 00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:44,739 tests to happen in the 1689 00:58:44,740 --> 00:58:46,539 coming years? Because all those designs 1690 00:58:46,540 --> 00:58:48,459 from the 70s, 80s are not verified 1691 00:58:48,460 --> 00:58:49,509 anymore? 1692 00:58:49,510 --> 00:58:51,939 Or will they continue 1693 00:58:51,940 --> 00:58:54,249 to rely on computer simulations 1694 00:58:54,250 --> 00:58:54,849 in this case? 1695 00:58:54,850 --> 00:58:56,799 Well, the simulation capabilities, of 1696 00:58:56,800 --> 00:58:58,569 course, have become much, much better 1697 00:58:58,570 --> 00:59:00,309 since the 90s. And so actually there is a 1698 00:59:00,310 --> 00:59:01,989 bigger chance of, you know, making 1699 00:59:01,990 --> 00:59:04,659 successful tests with simulations 1700 00:59:04,660 --> 00:59:06,609 only. But it is true that nuclear weapons 1701 00:59:06,610 --> 00:59:09,369 degrade over time after some decades. 1702 00:59:09,370 --> 00:59:11,889 You can't say for sure how the materials 1703 00:59:11,890 --> 00:59:12,829 have changed. 1704 00:59:12,830 --> 00:59:14,019 So you're not sure if they work? 1705 00:59:14,020 --> 00:59:16,059 Well, I just hope that the political 1706 00:59:16,060 --> 00:59:18,249 pressure and the worldwide political 1707 00:59:18,250 --> 00:59:20,649 situation is such that a 1708 00:59:20,650 --> 00:59:22,719 renewed nuclear test by one of 1709 00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:24,999 the big actors like Russia or the United 1710 00:59:25,000 --> 00:59:27,129 States would carry such a public 1711 00:59:27,130 --> 00:59:29,409 outrage that they dare not just 1712 00:59:29,410 --> 00:59:31,419 make another test. Again, it may be legal 1713 00:59:31,420 --> 00:59:33,519 if they wanted to do that, but I hope 1714 00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:36,039 that the public outcry that they fear 1715 00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:36,789 would be so bad. 1716 00:59:36,790 --> 00:59:39,009 They're not going to try my number 1717 00:59:39,010 --> 00:59:41,289 two and make it quick, please. 1718 00:59:41,290 --> 00:59:42,909 Quick heads up. 1719 00:59:42,910 --> 00:59:45,039 Officially, Alabama does not store 1720 00:59:45,040 --> 00:59:46,600 or produce nuclear weapons. 1721 00:59:47,740 --> 00:59:49,929 And a question 1722 00:59:49,930 --> 00:59:52,089 maybe, you know, are there any 1723 00:59:52,090 --> 00:59:54,699 movements against Semin nuclear weapons 1724 00:59:54,700 --> 00:59:57,039 or weapons that don't actually 1725 00:59:57,040 --> 00:59:59,469 try to cause a chain reaction, 1726 00:59:59,470 --> 01:00:02,169 but use nuclear 1727 01:00:02,170 --> 01:00:04,299 stored inside them to produce heat 1728 01:00:04,300 --> 01:00:06,669 in order to explode like tank engines 1729 01:00:06,670 --> 01:00:08,199 and stuff like that, like the U.N. 1730 01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:09,519 uses in Afghanistan? 1731 01:00:09,520 --> 01:00:10,520 Well, you have 1732 01:00:11,590 --> 01:00:13,989 you have depleted uranium ammunition, 1733 01:00:13,990 --> 01:00:15,519 of course, where they use uranium just 1734 01:00:15,520 --> 01:00:18,099 because it's a very hard metal 1735 01:00:18,100 --> 01:00:19,959 and that causes radiological problems for 1736 01:00:19,960 --> 01:00:22,089 the population, those rises in cases of 1737 01:00:22,090 --> 01:00:22,569 cancer. 1738 01:00:22,570 --> 01:00:25,179 And if they try to conceal 1739 01:00:25,180 --> 01:00:26,860 that in any way, conceal 1740 01:00:28,030 --> 01:00:30,159 to to if there are 1741 01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:32,559 any movements against these types 1742 01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:34,089 of ammunition because they also be 1743 01:00:34,090 --> 01:00:34,569 followed. 1744 01:00:34,570 --> 01:00:36,759 Well, there is the idea of a fissile 1745 01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:38,559 material cut off treaty that would mean 1746 01:00:38,560 --> 01:00:41,019 that all the nuclear weapons capable 1747 01:00:41,020 --> 01:00:43,059 material like uranium and plutonium in 1748 01:00:43,060 --> 01:00:44,589 the world have to be controlled. 1749 01:00:44,590 --> 01:00:46,449 And you have to really write down how 1750 01:00:46,450 --> 01:00:48,129 much you have and where it is and have 1751 01:00:48,130 --> 01:00:49,959 safeguards in place. 1752 01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:52,119 So I guess that would encompass this 1753 01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:53,739 type of material so that it couldn't get 1754 01:00:53,740 --> 01:00:55,359 into the wrong hands and be made into 1755 01:00:55,360 --> 01:00:56,349 weapons. 1756 01:00:56,350 --> 01:00:58,419 So let's hope also beside the CTBTO 1757 01:00:58,420 --> 01:01:00,429 being ratified that the fissile material 1758 01:01:00,430 --> 01:01:01,750 cut off treaty can really happen. 1759 01:01:03,040 --> 01:01:05,139 OK, we are out of time, please. 1760 01:01:05,140 --> 01:01:06,310 Once again, thank Michael.